With the MLS season over, a lot has changed; 10 years ago, the MLS Cup Final was played between Columbus Crew and New York Red Bulls in a soccer-specific stadium in Carson, California. 10 years later, Atlanta United played Portland Timbers in front of a sell-out crowd in an NFL stadium that was also configured for soccer. The most stunning thing about this is how much has changed with the line of thinking in MLS; the South, once considered a non-viable market, now hosts one of the league’s most popular teams. As opposed to suburbanites, MLS has instead attracted urban crowds with unique cultures and vibes. MLS is arguably entering the ‘4.0’ stage, where the league becomes a mainstream commodity in the American sport-sphere, young and burgeoning talent wants to play in the league and it becomes a showcase for hot prospects, and where cities vie for expansion spots. This is what this post is about.
For better, we have an idea of how the Crew situation will end; Haslam & Co. purchase the franchise from Precourt, who begins operating his franchise in Austin, Texas. Think about it; an NFL owner with no previous ownership in soccer wants to buy what some considered a ‘failing’ MLS franchise, build a new stadium, and change the team’s course. It’s telling of where the league is; MLS is an attractive league to invest in and will continue to grow.
For perspective, a good league to compare MLS with in terms of growth and interest would be the WNBA. I use the WNBA as a comparison because, in 2008, both leagues were at 14 teams, and were roughly equal in terms of popularity. 10 years later, in 2018, the WNBA has contracted, whereas MLS, on the other hand, will start the 2019 season with 24 teams, and may expand up to 32 by the end of the 2020s. A generalized assumption looking at this is that the WNBA, at best, has not grown enough to seriously consider expansion and needed to cut dead weight franchises (the latest report is a potential Bay Area team and partnership with the Warriors), whereas MLS is entering its ‘expansion phase’, similar to the MLB and NFL from the 1950s until the mid-1990s. In terms of attendance, media coverage, social media followers, player transfers and acquisitions, perception, and visibility, MLS has grown more compared to the WNBA. Judging purely from these numbers, we can now safely say that MLS has joined the ‘Big 4’, and we can now call it the ‘Big 5’.
With all of that out of the way, I wanted to get this post out before the year ended. The 2010s are ending and turned out to be a decade of dramatic change for MLS. We went from having the ambitious and rather bombastic entry of Seattle and are ending the decade seeing Atlanta United win their first title in only their second season, sending a whole city in frenzy. MLS might even see itself competing in the Copa Libertadores, with most of the league having soccer-specific stadiums which might expand.
With the 2020s approaching, the most important question is – who will be playing in the league? Will MLS go up to 32 teams like the NFL and NHL? Let’s look and rank each city’s probability of getting an MLS team, and see how they fit in ‘MLS 4.0’.
Confirmed Expansion Teams
1. FC Cincinnati (2019)
3 years ago, the prospect of an MLS team in Cincinnati would have been laughed at. Prior to FC Cincinnati, there was hardly a footprint for soccer in Cincinnati (other than an indoor soccer team called the Cincinnati Saints), and no known demand for an MLS team. Cincinnati seemed more of a ‘conservative’ sports market, with MLB and NFL being the main headliners, and college sports taking up the rest of that attention. Then, FC Cincinnati happened. The fans came, and kept on coming, and never left.
On closer inspection, it makes sense; the demographics in Cincinnati have shifted, and Cincinnati has begun reversing its population loss numbers, though it’s not a particularly diverse city. In addition, FC Cincinnati seems to draw not just from the city itself but from the metropolitan area. There’s one more thing we must look at; the success of other Cincinnati sports teams. The Bengals went through the notorious ‘Bungals’ period lasting from 1991 until 2003, and even since then, have not won a playoff game since 1990. The Reds, having gone through the cancer known as Marge Schott, have struggled since 2000, only making the playoffs three times since then. Cincinnati fans were likely frustrated by the failures and ineptitude of their other teams and may have seen soccer as a viable alternative. That frustration took them to an MLS expansion slot.
2018 comes and Cincinnati not only has one of the best supported non-MLS sides in the United States but was able to put forth a viable stadium plan; a process that local politicians viewed with cynicism, having been burned badly in the 1990s with the Bengals and Reds stadiums. Even with said cynicism, a stadium deal was done in West End, in a deal that will be less costly to the city compared to the Bengals and Reds in the 1990s. The best part about it is that the West End Stadium will be close to popular areas in Cincinnati and won’t be far from Cincinnati’s other sporting teams either.
Cincinnati is in a good place for MLS 4.0; FC Cincinnati consistently draws large crowds (in a football stadium!), has great ownership and management, and will have a natural rival in Columbus Crew. The Hell is Real derby will be important during MLS 4.0; domestic rivalries are not only important for leagues, but also local and even national economies. For example, in 2005, it was estimated that the Old Firm rivalry between Celtic and Rangers in Scotland was worth £120 million to the Scottish economy every year. Put it into perspective; the Hell is Real derby is an in-state rivalry which will generate revenue via merchandise, ticket sales, TV/streaming contracts and viewers, local businesses (such as bars, hotels, and restaurants), etc. I suspect this may have been a reason for why MLS decided to work out a deal in Columbus, especially with the ownership group that will take over.
2. Inter Miami CF (2020)
60-90 days jokes aside, Miami has been confirmed for an expansion team that will start in 2020, and everything seems smooth compared to where this bid was a few years ago.
The Miami bid has been viewed with skepticism because of previous failures in the Miami market; the Miami Fusion failed in 2001 (though to be fair, the Fusion drew good crowds that season playing in Fort Lauderdale, and were essentially a sacrificial lamb that offseason), an FC Barcelona-lead bid failed in 2009 (though that was because of the global recession; in hindsight it was good to avoid this one or we may have had another Chivas USA), and other local teams such as the Fort Lauderdale Strikers, Miami FC, and FC Miami City have either folded or struggled.
Context is needed for these failures; we’ve explained the two previous failures in Miami, while Miami FC was part of the NASL which has gone through legal troubles recently. The Ft. Lauderdale Strikers didn’t so much fail but were dissolved because Tampa Bay Rowdies owner Bill Edwards sued the team for over $300,000 in loans that hadn’t been paid back, and essentially took the team as collateral. FC Miami City is well down the soccer pyramid and doesn’t have the resources to become a serious sporting force in Miami.
Inter Miami CF will boast David Beckham, Jorge Mas, Masayoshi Son, and other wealthy backers; they won’t struggle financially (like the Fusion or FC Miami City), need to pay off serious debts (like the Strikers), or deal with a league in serious calamity (Miami FC). In addition, a stadium deal seems near, and Inter Miami CF probably won’t be in a stadium situation like New York City or New England. I would guess Inter Miami CF would play in Marlins Park (which is better designed for soccer matches) or Hard Rock Stadium (which has also been used for soccer in the past and is up to date but is far from where Inter Miami wants to be).
Another idea is that Miami isn’t a sports town, but let’s take a closer look. The Miami Marlins have made the playoffs only two times in their history, and while they’ve won two titles in those appearances, the PR they have with the area is a dumpster fire; Derek Jeter must work hard to fix the mess that Jeffrey Loria created. The Miami Heat have seen a decline since LeBron left, but according to a study published by WalletHub, the Miami Heat are tied for the most engaged NBA fanbase, and their front office has done a good job of marketing the team, so the Heat are an exception. The Miami Dolphins have been mediocre since 2000 and haven’t done a great job of marketing themselves to Miami’s shifting demographics, though that has changed over the past few years. The Florida Panthers have only made the playoffs five seasons since their inception in 1993 and play in Sunrise and the organization itself is a mess. Inter Miami don’t deserve to be guilty of the sins committed by 3 of the 4 teams mentioned in this section; it’s an uninformed assumption at best, and asinine at worst.
It's also worth looking at Miami’s demographics; Miami is touted as having a majority-Hispanic population, which means soccer will be a success, correct? First, a large Hispanic population doesn’t guarantee success, as MLS has multiple teams in heavily Hispanic areas that are struggling compared to other teams, and some of MLS’s more successful teams are in areas which don’t have a large Hispanic population. In addition, a large percentage of Miami’s Hispanic population is Cuban, Dominican, or Puerto Rican, and neither of those nations have large soccer followings (it’s worth nothing that soccer is growing in both Cuba and the Dominican Republic, but the diasporas are much removed from it). Nonetheless, sizeable-to-large communities of Argentinean, Brazilian (technically Latino, not Hispanic), Colombian, Ecuadorian, Guatemalan, Honduran, Mexican, Panamanian, Peruvian, Salvadoran, and Venezuelan descent all exist in Miami, so the Hispanic/Latino demand for soccer is there. Haitian and Jamaican communities are also present in Miami; Haiti and Jamaica are countries where soccer is popular, so it offers another market to tap into.
Even so, Jorge Mas is a well-known figure in the Cuban-American community, so there is likely a plan to market towards Cubans, Dominicans, and Puerto Ricans (and that plan will likely include all of Miami’s Hispanic/Latino groups as a whole). Non-Hispanic/Latino White Americans and African Americans also make up a sizable percentage of Miami-Dade County and the region. In the end, I would imagine that Inter Miami’s brand will be heavily influenced by Miami’s Latino culture, like how Atlanta United has been shaped by Atlanta’s hip hop culture, and the Timbers have been shaped by Portland’s hipster image.
I also imagine Inter Miami would attract a lot of talent from Spanish-speaking and Caribbean countries and Inter Miami would full-on embrace the MLS 4.0 idea of spending. One final note is that Miami is home to a lot of Spanish-speaking media, so I imagine the team will get a lot of exposure outside its home market.
3. Nashville (2020)
Nashville was an expansion bid few probably expected to make the cut, but it did. It says a lot about how MLS, and US Soccer, sees the South; traditionally this was considered a region where the game couldn’t do well, whether it was due to the perceived inelastic sporting nature of the South (college football is king) or the culturally conservative nature of the region itself and its attitudes towards soccer (in the lead-up to the 2014 FIFA World Cup, there was an infamous BBC article about soccer in the South where it was referred to as ‘sissyball’), but demographic shifts in the South’s urban and suburban areas have changed that perception.
Nashville, demographically speaking, seems ripe for MLS. Nashville has seen ample growth since the 1970s, and its populace is diverse. Nashville also has a fair amount of soccer history. The city was host to both the Nashville Metros (which operated from 1989 until 2012) and currently hosts Nashville SC, which may be the name of our new MLS franchise. In addition, the USMNT has played in Nashville in the past to large crowds.
Nashville has also supported and enjoyed the Nashville Predators, a team playing a sport that was also traditionally not thought of being viable in the South. Nashville’s MLS team can take some inspiration from the Predators; engaged ownership and promotion, good media coverage and success on the field will bode well for Nashville.
More importantly, Nashville should approach in the same way as newer teams have; engage with the community, promote the team well, and integrate the city’s culture with the team itself. Nashville is known as the Music City, so integrating Nashville’s diverse music taste is something the team can do to make itself marketable. Aside from music, Nashville also has events in film and African-American culture. Connecting with cities culturally has been a challenge for some teams in the past, and a boon for others. Let’s hope Nashville SC nails it with their stadium and branding.
Likely Expansion Candidates
In this section, we look at cities whose bids are in the running for expansion in 2022 (with one exception), and rank each from likeliest to least likely.
1. Austin
This one is weird to consider as an ‘expansion’, because this technically isn’t an expansion. The current plan is that Anthony Precourt will have his ownership rights for a team in Austin which will begin play in 2020 or 2021. MLS seems to have coveted Austin for a while, and why not? Austin is a growing city and fits the ‘young millennial’ image of MLS, also having a sizable Hispanic population, and companies are flocking to Austin. In addition, Austin has strong viewership numbers for MLS, the Premier League, and the USMNT. It’s a great city for an MLS team.
However, I’m certain that fans in Detroit, Sacramento, San Diego, and St. Louis already hate this team as it is, since it basically takes a spot from them in favor of a city that was hardly mentioned at all until late 2017 and reduces their chance of getting into the league. The stench of Precourt doesn’t help either, and I suspect Austin FC are likely to wind up as the black sheep of the league.
From MLS’s perspective, they’re going to eat their cake and have it too. While stadium plans aren’t super clear for Austin FC yet, they will play in a new stadium at McKalla Place which will likely be funded privately. It’ll be interesting to see how this team gets handled; will the Precourt stench turn fans away, or will the people of Austin embrace the controversy and hatred towards them? Time will tell.
It's also important to remember this isn’t the first time this has happened; the San Jose Earthquakes were in a similar situation back in the early 2000s; Anschutz Entertainment Group moved them to Houston, with San Jose’s championship roster being sent down to Texas as well. San Jose kept the rights to the names, colors, and records, but were otherwise dealt a hard hand by MLS. That Houston team would win two consecutive MLS Cup titles in 2006 and 2007. Ouch. Compared to San Jose, Columbus is getting off easy.
This still isn’t a shoe-in; the bid could collapse and Precourt could decide to back a bid in Sacramento, San Antonio, or San Diego, but it seems unlikely.
MLS can still be a hit in Austin missteps aside. The demographics are in favor of MLS, and the notoriety can be turned into something positive; the ‘most hated franchise in MLS’ moniker can be embraced, not to mention the ‘weird’ culture that can be tapped into heavily. It all depends on how Precourt approaches his franchise in Austin. If he does the same as he did in Columbus, the team could end up underwhelming, and a disappointment, and I’m certain the Don himself won’t be happy if that’s the case.
2. St. Louis
St. Louis is rather attractive; it’s a large metropolitan area with a long history of soccer, a decent TV market, and lighter competition compared to other cities (no NFL or NBA team, the Blues don’t overlap too much and while the Cardinals are popular, baseball is played on a daily schedule compared to the weekly schedule of MLS).
However, issues do present themselves with this bid; St. Louis has had a population decline dating back to the 1960s, the largest of any major city in the United States, though it has shown signs of slowing down. St. Louis’s TV market is also slightly smaller compared to that of the competing Sacramento bid. In addition, there have been some issues with getting a bid in St. Louis for a while, including stadium proposals that have been shot down.
The history of MLS2STL dates to 2008; Jeff Cooper attempted to bring an MLS franchise to St. Louis, but MLS was rather wary. This was still during the ‘cautious MLS’ period, and the last thing MLS needed was a franchise failing during a time where its viability was still questioned (and the global recession could easily make things worse). Sure enough, MLS was correct to be mistrustful of Cooper’s bid; Cooper launched both AC St. Louis and St. Louis Athletica, and they failed.
In 2017, a funding plan for a soccer stadium was shot down by St. Louis voters, and the bid seemed moribund, until a new proposal was formed in late 2018 (in the same proposed Union Station area, mind you), and was recently approved by the board of aldermen.
From the 2022 expansion candidates, I would give St. Louis the likeliest chance of getting accepted. St. Louis is genuinely interested in bringing a soccer team and willing to strike a deal to get into the league. In addition, if a viable stadium plan is presented (presumably without needing any or little public funding), I think St. Louis would be selected for expansion. The rich soccer history of the city makes up for its not great demographics, so perhaps a St. Louis team would be popular from the start, like Seattle or Portland.
3. Sacramento
Sacramento has unfortunately been played a bit by MLS, but I still think it’s (relatively) viable and has a good shot of getting in the league.
One of the things that Sacramento has going for it is the success of soccer that already exists in the city. Sacramento Republic FC have been successful in the USL, averaging more than 11,000 in attendance per game. Sacramento also has an actual stadium plan, and a state-of-the-art facility is being built as part of the Sacramento Railyards project.
Demographically speaking, Sacramento is decent; it’s a high-diverse area with high levels of integration and has seen a population boom since the 1970s. Sacramento also ranks 20th in terms of TV market, making it even more attractive. So, what’s the catch?
Sacramento was passed over in favor of Nashville and Cincinnati, due to ownership not having enough financial backing. While this may seem like a cynical ploy by MLS to award the new kid on the block Cincinnati, it’s also understandable; MLS doesn’t want to deal with less-than-wealthy ownership not doing enough to support a team. However, the Sacramento group seems optimistic that they can bring in another owner to help finance the team.
I still think Sacramento has a good shot, not too far from St. Louis. Sacramento has a better stadium situation, but its ownership issue remains a huge weight on their shoulder. Meanwhile, St. Louis has made meaningful progress.
Other things worth noting are that Sacramento’s only other professional sports franchise is an NBA team that has failed to make the playoffs in more than a decade and was nearly moved to Seattle, and a minor league baseball team. Not exactly heavy competition; it also helps that MLS will have the ‘major league’ appeal from the franchise’s inception, and not deal with the MLS 1.0/2.0 stench.
4. Detroit
Detroit has been coveted by MLS since the 1990s. It’s understandable; Detroit already has four other sports franchises and is the 11th largest TV market in the United States. Detroit also has seen some promising revitalization (including luring back the Pistons from Auburn Hills). However, Detroit’s bid has major issues.
The Detroit bid first came into serious light in 2011 via Triple Sports & Entertainment, with a plan to convert the Pontiac Silverdome into a soccer stadium; this failed, especially since the trend of suburban soccer stadiums had begun to pass.
Dan Gilbert and Tom Gores attempted to persuade MLS on building a new stadium in place of a jail site in Detroit, but it seems that plan has changed with the Ford family entering the frame; now the Detroit bid is relying on Ford Field. The problem? Ford Field wasn’t built with soccer in mind and playing MLS games there could present some issues, such as field dimensions and capacity issues. It’s also questionable whether a Detroit team would consistently fill seats, or whether they’d have to close them off, a callback to the infamous MLS 1.0 days of teams playing in largely empty football stadiums (to be fair, Atlanta does this; however, they’ve shown they can fill sits and do this more to drive demand).
The Detroit bid has doubled down on Ford Field, now hedging on a complete retrofit of the stadium, in addition to funding soccer in the area. Garber has said little about the Detroit bid since, although he has at least hinted at expanding past 28 and likely into 32, which gives a ray of hope to Detroit; Detroit is large market to leave without a team after all.
I would like to point out the elasticity of MLS. Remember, during the 2000s, the league was focused on its suburban strategy to grow the league. Nowadays, the league wants to appeal to urban demographics and cultures, and that strategy has brought far more success. Also, with the growing popularity of the league, MLS might be more willing to consider a refurbished football stadium.
One unique factor to point out about Detroit is its demographics; Detroit has a large African-American population; in the past, MLS hasn’t prioritized African-Americans, but Atlanta United has enjoyed success with the African-American community in Atlanta; an MLS team in Detroit needs to consider this, although it goes without saying that the African-American community in Detroit is much less well-off than of that in Atlanta, given the well-documented decline of Detroit since the 1960s.
Middle Eastern/North African diasporas in the area are also worth noting; Justin Meram is a player who came from the Chaldean community, and the immigrant communities were likely exposed to soccer. Arabic-language media, releases, and coverage would go a long way, alongside Middle Eastern cultural events and promotions.
The elephant in the room to address is Detroit City FC, a semi-pro team which has heavily resisted and openly speaks against MLS expansion. It’s something that might be worrying, in that it could influence the community’s view on an MLS team. It also doesn’t help that DCFC will likely not cooperate with a Detroit MLS team, regardless of how rational that decision is (personally I hope all parties reach a compromise to benefit all). However, I imagine most people in Detroit and Michigan aren’t following the situation, or simply don’t have an opinion either way, and I doubt it would affect the city’s perception of getting a team. For context, Detroit City FC plays the likes of… Kalamazoo FC and AFC Ann Arbor? Because that will get the attention of Detroiters.
5. San Diego
San Diego is, from a numbers perspective, another city that is a no-brainer. San Diego proper has a population of more than 1 million people, a potential demographic base (transplants and Hispanics/Latinos) and has very little competition (the only other professional sports team is the San Diego Padres, who attract more visiting fans their own).
San Diego wasn’t on the radar until 2014 and has only been a serious candidate since the Chargers bolted to Los Angeles back in 2017. Perhaps San Diego was considered ‘too large’ in the older days, or just not a fit for MLS. Building a stadium in San Diego seems to be something of a challenge; the Chargers failed to do so (though the blame lies more on Dean Spanos; obligatory screw you Spanos).
Unfortunately, the San Diego bid might be the weakest of the 2022 candidates. Soccer City was voted down in the 2018 midterms (in favor of college football, which means for now, the San Diego bid needs serious restructuring. Is the bid dead? Of course not. The St. Louis bid seemed dead until recently; Cincinnati wasn’t a serious contender for an MLS slot until 2 years ago; and Detroit’s bid changed in the blink of an eye. It’s not inconceivable for San Diego to restructure their bid. With that said, I’m placing San Diego last because there seems to be no concrete stadium plan for now; Austin has McKalla Place, St. Louis has Union Station, Sacramento has the Railyards, and Detroit has Ford Field. San Diego doesn’t have anything on the table yet.
There are unique aspects of San Diego which make it leery, or the opposite; attractive. For one, we can point out that San Diego doesn’t do a good job of supporting its sports teams, as the Chargers games were infamous for having more visiting fans in the stands, and Padres attendance isn’t any different. One explanation is that San Diego is a transplant-heavy city; this is something that works in favor of MLS, as we saw in Atlanta. Another simple explanation is that the Chargers showed no commitment to San Diego, and the Padres haven’t made the playoffs since Italy last won the World Cup. Of course, no one will go to see a team that either doesn’t care or fails; the Spanos family created a PR nightmare in San Diego and the Padres have lost the imagination of fans in the area.
The second aspect is the market for soccer; a high Hispanic population doesn’t automatically mean interest in MLS (Chicago, Colorado, Dallas, Houston, and San Jose are all markets with sizable Hispanic populations that have struggled in MLS 3.0), and San Diegans have a Liga MX team to root for in Tijuana. This muddies things a bit for MLS, and the market is more difficult when Liga MX has a more direct presence in San Diego than anywhere else.
Submitted December 12, 2018 at 09:07AM by Return_Of_BG_97 https://ift.tt/2QpRn4S
No comments:
Post a Comment