Pre-game Observations vs Philadelphia Eagles

Week 2 Falcons vs Eagles

(Plays to watch incoming later today/tonight. Busy with Borderlands 3 and the game is late on Sunday, so let me shoot bandits for a bit.)

The majority of this report is compiled from review of the 2018 Week 1 A12-P18 loss @Philadelphia and the 2019 Week 1 R27-P32 Eagles win vs Washington Redskins. When questions arose concerning player/team tendencies, I looked at additional tape as needed. When timestamps for plays are provided, I am using NFL GamePass play summary's times to notate the timestamps.

Initial Thoughts:

After the Week 1 loss @ Minnesota, watching these games was refreshing. The Minnesota Vikings play a very aggressive, attacking defense while the Philadelphia Eagles play a much more reactive, disguise based defense. Philly plays a lot of zone (Cover 3, a little Cover2) and rarely blitzes more than one linebacker. Philly disguises Zone/Man coverage by allowing a defender, who is in zone A LOT, to shift with a motioned offensive player pre-snap to give the appearance of Man and hide the truth until snap. Like the Falcons, the Eagles want to get pressure upfront with 4 linemen and drop the rest into coverage.

The Eagles offense tries to confuse, read and react to the opposing defense. RPO plays take advantage of soft, sleepy corner coverage regularly. Trip/Bunch WR splits flood zone coverage and force quick decisions from defensive backs that require high levels of communication and chemistry to adjust. Adjusting while not getting burned by Philly’s speedy WRs is the obvious key when covering Philly’s bunch formations in 11 personnel (1RB/1TE/3WR). Which WR/RB will A#22 Neal pickup when 2 WRs come through his zone? Which streaking WR will A#37 help with and leave the other to 1v1 when 2 WRs are running up the seam? Eagles’ offense will throw deep on 1st,2nd,3rd down, no matter the distance to go. Eagles WILL throw deep when at midfield, it is a certainty. Eagle’s running game likes to attack the edges of the defense with P#43 to work the void covering their WRs often causes.

The organization of topics and which topics I choose to discuss come organically from my wandering attention after watching the two aforementioned games. These topics are what, in my opinion, will be the keys to the game. Feel free to comment to add your own keys to the chain.

Offense:

Pass Protection: After the week 1 loss to Minnesota, it was reassuring to watch the Falcons @ Eagles last year. Ryans A#2 stayed pretty clean, taking a sack and another big hit from P#91 Fletcher Cox beating Alex Mack A#51. The majority of the pressure was from Chris Long, who is retired. Jake Matthews looked like a professional. Matthews A#70 can handle P#96 (DE)Derek Barnett’s (6’3” 259lbs) strength in 1v1 consistently, whereas Minnesota’s Everson Griffen (6’3” 273lbs) made Jake question why he dropped out of baking school.

Atlanta lost Lindstrom A#63 to IR and will play A#68 Jamon Brown at RG. Brown A#68 is 30lbs heavier (340lbs!!) than A#63 Lindstrom and if Atlanta plays A#76 McGary at RT, the right side of Atlanta’s line will at least be intimidating to look at and hard to bowl through.

Fletcher Cox (DT) P#91 occasionally got the best of Alex Mack #51 in 2018 when lined up 1v1 but, more often than not, Mack holds his own and he will have some big boys playing at the guard spots on Sunday. Fletcher Cox will always show up but didn’t look like a huge factor in 2018 and with a beefier OLine, shouldn’t be this time either.

Philadelphia is not much of a blitzing team with two exceptions:

• 1) Eagles like to blitz P#53 (OLB)Nigel Bradham any time the opposing team is in 3rd down with 5-10yards to go. I watched this blitz occur with great regularity but not great effectiveness. It will be an interesting wrinkle to see if this blitz finds more success against the RG/RT still trying to develop chemistry and the rook still getting his feet wet against NFL rushers. If Alex Mack A#51 has problems with P#91 on the same play the right side needs help with this blitz, could be a ruined play or two.

• 2) Eagles have a blitz in their scheme where they rush 7 (all LBs/Nickelback) and drop 4. The safety/DB in the box (usually P#27 Jenkins) aligns to cover the slot and at snap, a high safety will rotate to pick up the low safety’s man while the low safety blitzes. If Matt Ryan A#2 sees a high safety creeping down behind P#27 pre-snap and reads Man coverage, A#2 needs to be thinking BLITZ! Philadelphia ran this blitz twice in one drive against Atlanta in 2018 (and once last week vs Washington) to bust up a good drive Atlanta had going on. Both times, Matt Ryan reactively threw to Julio knowing/hoping he’d be in 1v1 in man. The second time Matt saw the blitz, he BADLY under throws Julio for an easy interception. SPECULATION WARNING!! I believe Philly went back to this blitz for a 2nd time in that 2018 game after seeing/confirming that Matt A#2 would toss it up for Julio. They rarely blitzed that game and to see such an aggressive blitz twice in one drive surprised and impressed me. What if they go back to this blitz, knowing that Ryan A#2 will be looking for it, and sneak one of their many savvy safeties back in underneath coverage on Julio? Dark days in pick city.

TL;DR: With no terrifying rushers and no heavy use of blitz in the past, Atlanta should be able to keep Matt Ryan clean. Should.

Moving the Ball: Philadelphia plays Dime personnel (1 LB, 6 DBs) vs opposing 11 personnel (1RB/1TE/3WR) a lot. Perhaps all the time? Philly fan chime in? These bastards actually play P#27 Malcolm Jenkins (S/DB), P#42 Andrew Sendejo (S) and P#23 Rodney McLeod (S) on the field together all the time. P#27 Malcolm Jenkins somehow leaves the NFC South and Matt Ryan still sees him all the damn time. WTF? Enough with this guy already. P#27 is smart and reads the offense well and is a great communicator. P#42 Sendejo is smart and nearly picked Matt Ryan off with savvy plays in 2017 when playing for Minnesota. P#23 McLeod didn’t stand out as outstanding or below average on tape to me but he shares the field with P#27 and P#42 which sets him up for success.

Eagles play a lot of cover 3 and Falcon’s WR/TE should be able to manipulate the zones with crisp/superior route running. A#12 is strong over the middle with strong hands and letting A#11 and A#18 draw attention to the outside will soften the middle for important crossing routes to keep Philly’s safeties from cheating to Julio too egregiously. JULIO WATCH!! Speaking of which, Philly played Julio very honestly in the 2018 game. The low/box safety would shade A#11 underneath on inside routes but other than that, I saw no special attention given. Philly didn’t care what side or position Julio lined up at, they just played their zone coverage and trusted their players. Julio has opportunities this week if Matt has time. Hooper A#81 and Sanu A#12 should see opportunities on 3rd downs. Atlanta played a lot of 11 personnel (1RB/1TE/3WR) last week @ Minnesota and I expect more of the same with bunch formations of A#11, A#12 and A#18 giving the Philadelphia’s secondary fits.

A#24 Freeman should be more in his comfort zone this week with the ability to work the outside edges of the defense in order to soften the middle. P#55(DE) and P#96(DE) did not impress me on tape and consistently failed to disengage with the OT to contain the edge. Atlanta even found success blocking 1v1 with a TE last year (an unthinkable phenomenon in the Minnesota games). P#91 Cox (DT) is not unblockable. Philly’s cornerbacks are not nearly as strong as Minnesota’s. Philly’s dime defense is made up of sure tacklers so yards after contact might not be huge but A#24 and A#25 should have the strength and speed to hit stick or juke on occasion.

TL;DR: If Ryan A#2 can keep the ball out of P#27’s and P#42’s hands and Freeman A#24 can keep it in his, there is an opportunity to pile yards.

Players to watch: A#68 Brown and A#76 McGary. How will the right side handle the frequent rush of P#53? Will the combined mass of Brown and McGary accelerate the Earth’s rotation when run blocking?

Defense:

Pass Rush: P#71 Jason Peters (LT) is Philly’s anchor on the left side of their OLine and in 2018, A#98 Takk McKinley was gobbled up if he allowed P#71 to get a hold of him. A#98 Takk (6’2” 265lbs) is strong but lower and lighter than P#71 Peters (6’5”328lbs). A#98 Takk actually beat P#71 a few times when bursting inside but anytime that A#98 tested his power head-on, P#71 locked Takk A#98 down like a sleep spell. BUT THERE IS HOPE! A Takk who is a year wiser and has improved his hands could find success vs an aging P#71 Peters. P#71 Peters handled A#98 Takk in 2018 but it didn’t look to be a cakewalk and when A#98 was lined up elsewhere, he found success. Even if P#71 wins this next matchup, Takk occupying P#71’s full attention could pay off for others.

A#97 Grady Jarrett was a wrecking ball with a jersey in the 2018 matchup against Philly. P#61 Stefen Wisnieski (LG) (I’m not typing that again) was not enough man for A#97 in 2018 and perhaps as a consequence, Ol Wisey P#61 is unemployed and sitting on his couch this season. Philly now plays P#73 Isaac Seumalo (Good ol Seumy) at LG and from what I can see, he isn’t an improvement in performance but is lighter on Philly’s wallet (2.5mil vs 700k). P#73 is a 3rd round pick from 2016 that looks a little faster but also as vulnerable to A#97’s wrath as Ol Wisey P#61.

Vic Beasley A#44 added a lot of pressure with his speed in 2018. A#44 was a problem for Philly when stunting with a DT. When lined up as a DE, I’d love to see this stunt be a staple of Atl’s pass rush as Philly tried to adjust their blocks to handle Vic’s speed/strength but Vic A#44 or his stunting friend would win out and force the early throw.

Run game: After last week at Minnesota, I suspect/hope disciplined run defense was a point of emphasis at practice. Atlanta matches up well with Philly’s run game. Philly uses a lot of misdirection and outside runs. A#45 and A59 identify and attack the run well against Philly. A#44 is a big asset vs the Philly RBs as Vic has tremendous wingspan and speed but passive finish in1v1 tackling often. A#37 and A#22 are smart, hard hitters vs the run. A#97 was very disruptive in 2018 vs the run game and should continue to find success on Sunday vs Philly’s guards.

Big Play prevention: This is the topic of most concern after watching the Eagles @ Redskins as DeSean Jackson P#10 is still doing DeSean Jackson things. Atl plays primarily Cover3 which will help prevent deep plays if the Philly run game doesn’t start sucking in coverage on play action. With P#13, P#17 and P#10, Philly has a trio of #1 WRs that they line up in trips/bunch 11personnel a LOT to pressure DBs into congested space and making decisions after the snap. At midfield, Philly likes to send the two inside WRs on seam go’s/post routes resulting in 2 huge TDs to P#10 @ Redskins on 3rd and 10. If Trufant A#21 can neutralize a WR and the Atlanta pass rush pressures Wentz into early throws, hopefully A#27 and A#26 can play hard and the safeties/LBs rally to tackle. This might lead to long, sustained dink/dunk drives by Philly as they converted 3rd down vs Redskins 65% of the time so don’t get frustrated when watching. Philly can move the ball but if they do so in 3-7yard spurts, that is surely a victory for the defense.

TL;DR: Pray the pass rush can get home before P#10 and P#13 get bored and start racing each other to the end zone.

Players to watch: A#98 Takk McKinley. I do not want the stress of watching the WRs and DBs do battle live so I want to see if Takk learned anything from facing P#71 Peters last year. When lined up 1v1, Takk has the physical tools to win but does he have the braingrapes?

Final Thoughts: Fandom aside, after reviewing the 2018 game @ Philly, I felt the Falcons had the superior team. I still believe that and my feelings towards the outcome on Sunday night are optimistic. After watching the 2017 @ Minnesota game, I couldn’t see a clear path to a win. I did not see anywhere close to that level of domination when reviewing Philly. So why did the Falcons lose @ Philadelphia and why with this talented roster do they continue to lose to inferior teams? (WARNING! THIS IS STRICTLY OPINION!) The Falcons committed 15 penalties in that game @ Philadelphia for 135yards, the most they committed all year (it was week 1, after all). 135yards gifted to a team that does not need help moving the ball. Turnovers are huge, and were a factor in 2018 @ Philadelphia, but the Falcons have been decent as a team under Dan Quinn with turnovers. You know what they haven’t been good at under Dan Quinn? Penalties.

Here are some numbers for season totals in penalties and yards gifted to the opponent vs the previous regime:

Mike Smith 2009-2014 Penalties/yards

• 2009 – 78/664

• 2010 – 65/630

• 2011 – 96/784

• 2012 - 60/456

• 2013 - 91/788

• 2014- 97/840

Dan Quinn 2015-2018 Penalties/yards

• 2015 – 100/969

• 2016 – 119/954

• 2017 – 110/1042

• 2018 – 101/899

Dan Quinn led teams have gifted the opposing team 90 or more penalty yards five times in his tenure. Can you guess what their record in those five games is? 0-5. Three of those losses were lost by one possession. Two of those losses were by 3 points and 1 point!

Is this an oversimplification? Of course. Does it explain the totality of the problem? Of course not. But it does matter more than a little bit and is rarely discussed because it isn’t sexy with a clear cause and effect. Matt Ryan threw an interception in the redzone on a terrible pass and gave the other team the ball instead of scoring points. That’s easy to understand and impossible to argue.

However, look at this play in the 4th quarter of 2018:

Q4 5:04 Falcons are punting the ball back to Philly after a 3 and out late in the 4th. Falcons are still winning but the margins are slim at 12-10. Still, the Eagles need points which means they need to get within scoring range first which means converting a few first downs. What does A#85 Saubert do after A#5 Bosher boots a 52yard punt? Commits a blatant facemask on the runner, which was unnecessary as P#43 Sproles was about to be clobbered by 2 other Falcons tacklers. So now the Eagles have the ball at midfield (we discussed previously the dangers of midfield vs the Eagles) and all they need is a FG. They opt for a TD instead and now wouldn’t you know? Another late game opportunity for Matt Ryan to save the day! Sound familiar? At that point in the game, the Falcons were leading on the scoreboard but the Eagles regained control of the game and won after the Falcons’ dropped passes, penalties and general sloppiness reduced their % chance to win to a last ditch fade route to Julio. Sound familiar? At a critical time when Dan Quinn needed his defense to get a stop so his offense could put the game away, one person (A#85) single handedly gifted the Eagles 1.5 first downs before his teammates on defense even had the chance to take the field.

Is A#85 to blame for the loss? Of course not. Does his blunder influence the math? Of course.

The pattern of penalties, especially at key moments, is a disturbing trend and a solid knock against Dan Quinn. When two teams are as closely matched as the Eagles and Falcons are, everything matters.

That being said, I believe the Falcons can win with Quinn and until suicidal to do so, will almost always choose continuity and growth from a coaching staff above termination.

TL;DR FOR ENTIRE REPORT: Falcons have a great chance of righting the ship with their first victory in 2019. Minimize mistakes. Keep an eye on P#10 Jackson and P#13 Agholor at midfield. Throw to Jones/Ridley 1st and 2nd down. Throw to Sanu/Hooper/Freeman on 3rd. It’s that simple.

Final score: Atlanta 30 - Philadelphia 27. Falcons win on a 4th quarter FG by Matt Bryant who surprises his holder and ST coach by performing a textbook tornado kick to nail a 46yard FG. The Tae Kwon Do Association of America awards Matt Money-san Bryant an honorary 17th degree black belt as a result in attempts to bolster their dwindling enrollment numbers by hitching their ancient art of kicking to the draught animal that is A#3.

Submitted September 14, 2019 at 10:18PM by jadthepen https://ift.tt/30evV2Y