Offseason Review Series Day 22: Indianapolis Colts

#Indianapolis Colts Division: AFC South 10-6 (4-2)

Intro

Last season, the Colts blew expectations out of the water. After being called a potential 1st overall pick team, because who knew if Andrew Luck would ever play again, the Colts came roaring back, carried early in the season by their defense (a sentence I never expected to be able to write), until Luck got reacclimated enough to lead the team again. While the season ended with a disappointing playoff loss to Kansas City, it was still far above the expectations for a team full of so many rookies and new free agents.This year, they’re actually primed for success.

Coaching Changes:

There was really only one major coaching change this year. The entire Offensive Line coaching staff was overhauled. Former Patriots OL Coach Dave DeGuglielmo was hired by Josh McDaniels before he quit his job. He was let go after this season because of a “difference in coaching philosophies”. The current theory is that Guges handled Denzelle Good’s family tragedy in a way Reich didn’t like. (For those out of the loop, Good’s brother was murdered in a drive-by shooting, so Good took some time off for bereavement. DeGuglielmo didn’t like that his head wasn’t in the game three weeks later, so Good was cut, in what seemed to be a mutual parting of ways.) Assistent OL Coach Bobby Johnson was snatched up by the Bills to coach their OL. So that’ll hurt, but I think we’ll be alright. Mostly because they found the great Howard Mudd to return as a “senior offensive assistant”. Mudd coached the golden-age Colts Offensive lines with Jeff Saturday, Tarik Glenn, and Ryan Diem, among others. That line was rock solid and let Peyton Manning take as long as he needed to throw. How did they get Mudd back? They brought in Chris Strausser to coach the offensive line. Strausser is coming from coaching offensive lines in the Pac 12 and developed a strong bond with Mudd. They came as a sort of package deal. Klayton Adams came in to replace Johnson as the OL assistant. That coaching change went from being a scary warning to an absolute A+++ hire. This was beyond our wildest dreams. We also brought in a new Tight Ends coach Jason Michael, who has spent time coaching such individuals as Antonio Gates and as offensive coordinator in Tennessee.

Free Agency:

Losses:

Name	Position	New Team
Dontrelle Inman	WR	Patriots
Al Woods	DT	Seahawks
Ryan Grant	WR	Raiders
Najee Goode	LB	Jaguars

Yeah, we didn’t really lose much. Inman is the only one that was a contributor on the team by week 10. Everyone else had been pretty well phased out. Woods was the best big man on the DL we had, but it seems that the defensive philosophy is going to emphasize speed. Honestly, these are the biggest losses and none of these are going to hurt.

Pickups:

Name	Position	Old Team	Length	Money
Spencer Ware	RB	Chiefs	1 Yr	1.2 Mil
Justin Houston	DE	Chiefs	2 Yr	23 Mil
Devin Funchess	WR	Panthers	1 Yr	10 Mil

Most of the free agents that actually got signed played for the Colts last year, like Vinatieri, Desir, and Moore. These three are the only three free agents that stand any sort of chance of making the roster next year. Houston is immediately the best pass rusher on the defense. Funchess, even with his problems from his time in Carolina, is immediately the second best WR that has actually played in the NFL. Ware is serious competition for the RB position. If four get carried, it’ll be amazing. If only three make the team, a good one will be getting cut. But the Colts were not nearly as active in free agency as some people expected. If anyone actually bothered to listen to Chris Ballard, this wouldn’t be a surprise, though.

Draft:

Round	Pick	Name	Position	College
2	34	Rock Ya-Sin	CB	Temple
2	49	Ben Banogu	OLB	TCU
2	59	Parris Campbell	WR	Ohio State
3	89	Bobby Okereke	LB	Stanford
4	109	Khari Willis	SS	Michigan State
5	144	Marvel Tell	CB	USC
5	164	EJ Speed	LB	Tarleton State
6	199	Gerri Green	DE	Mississippi State
7	240	Jackson Barton	OT	Utah
7	248	Javon Patterson	OL	Mississippi

Last year, the Colts got one of the best grades on their draft by the end of the season. Shoutout to Andy Benoit for calling the Quenton Nelson pick a D+ because "there were bigger needs on defense". This year, the Colts were returning 21/22 starters. Instead of needing depserately to find players that can be on the field for 70-80% of snaps, they were finally able to step back and not demand all their draft picks be day one ROY canditates. Most of these picks were made not with this season in mind, but with the next two to three years. On the whole, I’d give this draft class about a B average. There’s some great potential in these players, but at least three wouldn’t make the 53 man roster their first season.

Trades

The Colts traded back out of the first round to pick up some second round picks this year and next. This really makes sense, because the FO thought there were enough guys they wanted left on the board, and they'd be able to get the value out of the second rounds. It also shows an interesting approach to the draft. Rather than tier players by round, the Colts front office simply breaks players into tiers, and if there are enough remaining, they'll built up as much capital as possible.

Rock Ya-Sin, CB, Temple

2.34 (2nd in Round)

After a stronger-than-expected showing from the defense last season, the secondary still appeared as a glaring weakness. While Desir had some flashes (shutting down Hopkins), Wilson was still disappointing and Moore was excelling in the slot, but not nearly as great on the outside. Ya-Sin provides a powerful leadership ability and a wilingness to help out in run support. His athleticism has also been on full display so far this offseason, and he finished a practice last week with two interceptions. Arrow pointing up, and the depth in the roster means he won't be thrown to the wolves his first week unless he's actually earned it. I'm still not sure how I feel about Rock as a player, but this one totally makes sense to me. A-

Ben Banogu, DE, TCU

2.49 (17th in Round)

At first glance, Banogu doesn't realy make a ton of sense. After all, this roster already had Sheard, Houston, and Kemoko Turay from last year, in addition to Muhammad, Lewis, and Ward, who all spent time on the edge too. Banogu wasn't one of those premier players in the pre-draft chatter, but looking back at it, I'm actually a little confused as to why. He's got some great explosiveness, and most importantly, he has some experience (albeit in high school) playing LB. To simplify for him this year, he's going to be focusing primarily on rushing the passer. But the long term plan is for ihm to play either some SAM or bring back the LEO/Joker role in the defense that hasn't been seen since Tony Dungy used Raheem Brock. Freakishly athletic, but with time to grow and learn the position. This is definitely a long-term pick. B+

Parris Campbell, WR, Ohio State

2.59 (27th in round)

We knew Parris Campbell had some freakish speed. We knew he had some crazy YAC ability. We also knew the Colts had one of the worst YACs in the league last year and nothing in the WR group behind TY Hilton. Match made in heaven, right? Frank Reich apparently pounded the table for this pick, going so far as to say "it's not fair" that this offense gets him along with TY, Mack, Ware, Hines, Ebron, Doyle, and Alie-Cox. That's a lot of possibilities for the offense to use. While it seemed like a luxury pick at the time, it's another subtle long-term pick. TY has been playing for 8 years and specializes in speed and crisp routes. That's not a recipe for a super long career for a WR. And aside from the question marks of Deon Cain and what may be, there's nobody on this roster that the coaching staff was super excited to see in three years. Campbell is going to be a big part of this for years to come. A

Bobby Okereke, LB, Stanford

3.89 (25th in round)

LB doesn't seem to be much of a need for the Colts, right? After all, Leonard just won DROY, Walker had a quiet breakout season, and we just drafted Banogu to play SAM. But low-key, the Colts LB depth last year was... not good. It also helps that Okereke is a very similar prospect to Leonard, at least from a measurement standpoint. Speed, length, and instincts are all there, he just needs training. It's a good thing he'll be able to sit behind one of the best young LBs in the league. Okereke figures to be a rotational MLB with Anthony Walker. While Walker is the expected starter, I fully expect to see Okereke start to push him for playing time by the end of this season. This move also gives the Colts infinitely more LB depth than they had last season, when the backups included Najee Goode and Zaire Franklin. He also brings the athleticism to be able to play any LB position, and in a world with a limited roster size, positional flexibility is at a premium. B

Khari Willis, S, Michigan State

4.109 (7th in round)

This offseason, you probably heard a lot of Colts fans clamoring for someone like Nasir Adderly because while Malik Hooker can shut down half the field, the other side of the safety room is... we'll be nice and say "injury-prone". Geathers hasn't played a full season since being drafted and Farley, while a solid backup, doesn't quite have the instincts needed to be a solid SS. Enter Willis, the keynote speaker for the Big 10's awards banquet. He's got the work ethic to learn every part of the position and the range to work with Hooker deep. With Farley and Geathers both on one year deals, Willis is another one looking to sit this year and start next year. He won't provide the greatest upside, but a solid, consistent player is still something this team needs. B-

Marvell Tell, CB, University of Southern California

5.144 (6th in round)

Tell is an interesting prospect. His athletic testing was really good, but he played as a S in college. Last season, the depth in the CB room was lacking to say the least. The great Lenzy Pipkins actually saw the field, on multiple occasions. It's clear that they want to avoid that same thing this year. While Ya-Sin is going to be pushing for starting duties this year, Tell is definitely someone they see as a raw pure athlete that they can teach to be a CB. As far as immediate impact goes, I expect Tell to make the roster for special teams abilities, but I don't think it's impossible for him to spend this year on the practice squad learning the role. Hopefully this depth experiment works out. C

EJ Speed, LB, Tarleton State

5.164 (26th in round)

A small school LB with ridiculous length and great athletic testing... sounds familiar, right? He's a very physical defender, and on tape, it looks like he actually enjoys hitting guys. He struggles when he gets caught by OL, but definitely looks like he'll be a day one special teams contributor, if that athleticism is any indicator. But Speed is still a very raw LB right now and will definitely need time to sit and learn the position. It's a good thing the WILL in front of him is another small school prospect that everyone had questions about coming into the league, isn't it? The LB group now has plenty of depth. B

Gerri Green, DE, Mississippi State

6.199 (26th in round)

Green is... interesting. He was definitely not the best player on that Mississippi State defense, but he was a captain. He was brought in primarily for his leadership ability, as far as I can tell. He'll be pushing for a roster spot and lucky to get one with how deep the DL looks and Banogu making the transition to mostly playing DE. Huge dude, great athleticism, but limited college production and the depth of the DL group in front of him mean that Green will probably spend his first NFL season on the practice squad. B-

Jackson Barton, OT, Utah

7.240 (26th in round)

A tall LT with some speed. He struggle setting his base but once he gets set, has some serious strength. For as good as the first team is, our OL needs a lot of help with depth. There's only two guys I'd be at all comfortable with having to come into a game. Barton actually reminds me a little bit of Zach Banner, the giant bear of a man Ballard drafted in 2017 in the 4th round. I think Barton has great athleticism, but needs a lot of work to be able to be a consistent OT in the NFL. But, it's a 7th round player. You get what you pay for. B+

Javon Patterson, C, Ole Miss

7.246 (32nd in round)

Patterson is pretty good at being able to be a wall, but doesn't quite have the strength to push around the stronger DL players. He strikes me as somewhat similar to Boehm, a solid player that has good technique when in his spot on the line, but doesn't really have the speed or athleticism to work on the second level. Another depth pick that will hopefully be developing on the practice squad. Unfortunately, Patterson tore his ACL in the spring and will miss the entire season. C

Roster

QB: 2 Luck, Brissett

Yeah, the Colts went ahead and signed $wag Kelly and brought back Philip Walker, the on-again-off-again practice squad QB that they've been using to sort of hold 11 practice squad players. But none of them stand a chance to beat out Luck (obviously), a top 10 QB in the league, or Brissett, the guy who started for him for a year and is probably better than a handful of starters out there. This position is set for good, though this is a contract year for Brissett, so questions abound about next year.

RB: 4 Mack, Hines, Wilkins, Ware

This is my first controversial lineup. I don't know if the Colts will actually carry 4 RBs this year. They did at times last year, but it was usually with someone injured. Mack is the incumbent feature back and Hines is one of those gadget players that OCs love to play with (and there will be more on this roster). Wilkins is the one that replaced Mack while he was suspended to start last season and showed some promise, although he struggled with fumbles. Ware is really the big name here. After starting for KC in 2016, he's now with the Colts to provide some serious competition at the RB stable. I don't think it's impossible for him to beat out Mack for the feature back job, or even bump Wilkins off the roster entirely. But for now, I've got him as a backup, one of 4 RBs.

WR: 5 Hilton, Funchess, Campbell, Cain, Pascal

This is another one where I'm sure there will be some controversy. TY is obviously top of the depth chart, and that's not changing. I've got Funchess as the second at the moment because he seems to be the best compliment to TY with his size, but that could change. With how much they're paying him, I fully expect him to make the roster. Parris Campbell was a second round pick and another one of those gadget players, specializing on jet sweeps and breaking small plays to the house. Deon Cain was the very exciting rookie sixth round pick last year from Clemson who tore his ACL in the first preseason game, but displayed some fantastic athleticism and big play ability. The coaching staff is incredibly high on Cain. I have Pascal as the fifth over people like Chester Rogers, Penny Hart, and Marcus Johnson quite frankly because Pascal is the best blocking WR the Colts have had for a while. He also has experience with returning, and while Rogers has it too, Pascal is a much better blocker and doesn't have the unfortunate tendency to try to run a punt out of the end zone for seven to twelve yards. Hart could be one of those UDFAs that make the roster (another gadget type player).

TE: 4 Jack Doyle, Eric Ebron, Mo Alie-Cox, Ross Travis

The Colts have the best TE room in the league. They may not have the best TE, and there may be a tandem or two out there better than their top two, but nobody even comes close to having a third and fourth TE as good as the Colts. Doyle is back after a bad kidney injury, the keystone blocking and catching machine who has served as Luck's favorite target when the WR cupboard was bare. Ebron obviously had a huge breakout year last year with his 15 TDs, but don't expect a repeat of that. He's no longer the only red zone threat and his limited blocking actually saw him lose a large number of snaps to Mo Alie-Cox last year. Mo is the guy who Moss'd the Raiders for a beautiful TD that mirrored one of his signature VCU dunks. Oh, by the way, Mo Cox played basketball. He's been progressing beautifully into a well-rounded TE. Ross Travis is the next TE that they've been working on developing, another former basketball player with some great athleticism. He’s apparently been getting pushed by Hale Hentges, but I think Hale ends up on the PS.

OL: 10 Castonzo, Nelson, Kelly, Glowinski, Smith, Haeg, Clark, Boehm, Barton, Andrews

The starting five on this group is set. They were far and away one of the best in the league last year, going a whopping 5 games without allowing a single sack. Castonzo is definitely the oldest one, entering a contract year. Nelson is coming off an all-pro rookie season and entered training camp talking about everything he wasn't happy with last season. Kelly is actually probably the biggest question mark here. He's been a good to great C, but had some major problems with injuries the past couple seasons. He's still on a rookie contract, though, so he's not going anywhere. Glowinski is example number one of the difference Tom Cable makes. He's the weakest link on this line, but he was also a stud, just like the rest of them last season, stepping in when Matt Slauson broke his back. Braden Smith was probably the biggest surprise of the bunch last year, though. Stepping in at T after being drafted as a guard, Smith immediately jumped into the role, not giving up his spot for the rest of the season. Haeg and Clark are both very solid backups, Haeg able to play any position on the line (literally, he's taken a snap at all 5) and Clark a serviceable tackle. This position probably has the least depth of any on the roster. There's a significant drop between the first and second string guys. Boehm was an amazing replacement for Kelly last year, earning a higher PFF grade, but he has a humongous weakness when he's asked to actually get to the second level, which limits his ability. Barton is a rookie taken in the 7th round this year along with Patterson, who tore his ACL and is out the season. Poehls is the 10th man, literally because they need more G depth. I have no clue who number 10 on this group will be, and not because of the level of competition.

DL: 10 Sheard, Hunt, Autry, Houston, Turay, Lewis, Banogu, Ward, Stewart, Muhammad

This is a strange group. Reich and Ballard have both said they really envision all four positions on the DL as one-gap penetrators, and the way they've positioned the roster makeup, they seem to be moving away from "traditional" DT/DE differences. Hunt, Autry, Turay, Lewis, and Ward can play inside or outside, and the team made some pretty liberal use of stunts to get some pass rush last season. Sheard is the unsung hero of this defense, by far the best pass rusher for the last two years. This is the final year of his contract, but he's performed exemplary up to this point. However, a training camp injury means he may miss the first week or two of the regular season. Hunt had himself on pace for a breakout season before an injury slowed him down, and he never really fully recovered before the season ended. Autry broke out in a big way, finding a way to not just generate sacks, but also block punts. Justin Houston is the new big name, added as both a mentor and because Ballard and co. believe that he still has plenty of rush left in him, if he's in the right system (and this is). Kemoko Turay started last year pretty hot, but found himself in the doghouse a little bit after showing a seeming lack of effort at times. Another season to grow and mature, along with more time in practice could help him replace Sheard next season. Lewis was the IR-return last year, and when he returned, he made a decent splash. He's got a remarkably similar style to Autry, and I think having Autry to mentor him is paying off in a big way. Stewart is the only big body left on the roster, so I'm kinda guessing he'll make the roster for that alone. Ben Banogu was drafted to be a Sam linebacker, but he showed enough rush that they have him as purely a DE right now. I think he might end up spending time as a LB in the middle of the season, which is why I've got 10 DL instead of 9. Jihad Ward showed up in a big way last season until an injury sent him to IR. Al-Quadin Muhammad seems to be the only player capable of taking over for an injured Sheard.

LB: 5 Leonard, Walker, Okereke, Speed, Adams

Darius Leonard is the most obvious on defense. The other rookie all-pro (suck it Dick Butkus and Gale Sayers, not the only ones anymore), Leonard came into training camp just "trying to earn a starting job". Safe to say I think he's got it. He's looking to improve over his unbelievable rookie season, trying to climb into that tier with Luke Kuechly and Bobby Wagner. Anthony Walker is the incumbent Mike and a brilliant middle linebacker, but lacks a little bit of speed on passing downs. That's where Okereke comes in, in the tightest battle in the defense front 7. My guess is they'll be splitting snaps 60-40 by week 3. EJ Speed is one of those guys that can play any LB position, and I have a feeling he'll be used in all of them. Newly drafted rookie, Speed popped on the radar with his amazing athletic testing at his pro day. Matthew Adams was the starting Sam for the second half of the season, and with Banogu making the transition to more of a DE, I don't think anyone is going to beat him out for that. I know a lot of teams will carry 6 LBs, but I think the Colts will only carry 5. SAM is their least used LB position, and he’s only on the field for 15-20 snaps a game at most.

CB: 6 Desir, Moore, Wilson, Ya-Sin, Collins, Tell

This is the hardest position on the roster to project. There are 8 guys that could make the roster and surprise no one, and just about any of them could start. I've got Nate Hairston and Chris Milton as the last two bumped here, both will probably end up on other rosters. If Hairston does make the roster, Tell will find himself on the practice squad, because that athletic testing is going to be kept close to home. He's being transformed from a S to a CB, so I don't think he's starting, even if he makes the roster. However, he’s apparently been making some huge plays in special teams practice, so I think he’ll be able to get to the final 53 on that alone. Desir made a name for himself last season in particular after showing up in a big way to shut down Hopkins in the playoffs. Kenny Moore II is the highest paid slot corner in the league. He also has figured out the art of a slot blitz and covering slot receivers. He's good at what he does. Quincy Wilson has been quite the anomaly. Some days he'll show up in a big way, others he barely even sees the field. It sounds like he's been struggling with effort, but last year, he got some mentoring in the form of some senior players. I think he'll show up with the effort and knowledge to finally solidify himself as a starter. Rock Ya-Sin was the first second round pick this year. His toughness and skill at Temple earned him a single digit jersey and the staff was raving about him after the spring trainings. Jalen Collins is the last guy I have making the roster. He's been practicing with the 1s, and I think he's going to make the roster, but starting is going to be interesting and depend on who the coaching staff trusts more. Another close one to watch.

S: 4 Hooker, Geathers, Farley, Willis

Another controversial one. Hooker is absolutely the starter. He basically shut down half the field last season after a short rookie season that saw him land 3 interceptions in 6 games, before tearing his ACL in the 7th. Geathers is injury prone, but when he's there, he's another strong SS. Farley may beat him out for that starting job, but I think they prefer using him as a 3rd safety when needed. Willis was another newly drafted rookie, who stood out especially for his leadership, giving the keynote address at the Big 10 banquet last year. George Odum is the one that I don't have making it that's most controversial, but I think he gets bumped by Willis.

ST: 3 Vinatieri, Sanchez, Rhodes

Adam Vinatieri is the all-time scoring champion, back to continue to extend his lead. He didn't look great in KC last year, but until that game, he was looking absolutely fine. Sanchez is low-key a top 5 punter in the league. He doesn't always have the deepest punts, but his hangtimes are absolutely killer. He's got a shockingly low return allowed per punt number, with a 45.3 yards per punt and 42.7 net. Rhodes continues to serve as long snapper and backup LB, and he hikes the ball good.

2019 Schedule: (9-7, 4-2)

Yes, I realize this is actually a step down from last year. The Colts have a crazy difficult schedule (at least, on paper right now) and I’m trying very hard not to be a blind homer.

Week 1: @ Chargers (L)

This is a real tough game to open the season on. An away game at one of the best rosters in the league, with another proven high-level QB and one of the best DLs in the league. I think the Offensive Line will be able to keep Luck upright, and I think the Chargers' weakness on the OL will prove a liability, but on the whole, I trust Rivers against the Colts' secondary more than I trust Luck against Derwin James. Game of the Week material right here, but I think the Chargers take it in a nail-biter.

Week 2: @ Titans (W)

Andrew Luck has never lost to the Tennessee Titans. The OL shut down Casey and Orakpo pretty well last year. While the Titans may have gotten better on paper, they'll be dealing with suspensions still at this point, which means the DL, though not amazing, will have an advantage. I expect a close first half, but with the Colts pulling away late in the 3rd for the win.

Week 3: vs Falcons (W)

This will be... a game. Matt Ryan vs Andrew Luck, Julio Jones vs TY Hilton. I'm expecting the Colts to win this one, and I don't expect it to be too terribly interesting. Not that it'll be a boring game, it just feels like one of those games that's going to be easily forgettable. I can't tell you why, that's just how I feel about it right now. This will be the Colts secondary's biggest test, trying to figure out how to keep Julio under control while Calvin Ridley threatens any time they let up on him. I think the score will be close, but the game won't be super interesting.

Week 4: vs Raiders (W)

Sorry, Raiders, but... I don't have faith in you. A Tom Cable coached offensive line, a lame duck QB, and an aging roster just doesn't seem like a recipe for success, and the Colts should be able to chase Carr around to their hearts' content.

Week 5: @ Chiefs (L)

A rematch of the game that ended their postseason. The real trick will be getting that offense moving this time. Having more than just a hobbled TY for offensive weapons will definitely be hugely beneficial for that, and adding Justin Houston to the Colts roster instead of the Chiefs should help to keep Luck upright. This will be another very good game, but I see the Chiefs pulling away in the 4th.

Week 6: Bye

Early bye. Not a fan.

Week 7: vs Texans (W)

The Colts were the ones that exposed the Texans the most in the postseason last year, although Hopkins was playing hurt. They did a beautiful job shutting down that Houston Defensive Line. With the home field advantage, I think the Colts take it in another close, but not that close, game. One of those where the scoreline is close, but the play really isn't.

Week 8: vs Broncos (W)

The Broncos are such a strange team right now. With Von Miller and Bradley Chubb rushing the passer in Vic Fangio's system, I expect a strong pass rush threat in this game. But at the same time, Joe Flacco is their starting QB. While I'm putting this in as a W right now, the Broncos could be anything any given week. We might get a scary strong defensive showing, but with the real Joe Flacco showing. Alternatively, we might get Elite QB Joe Flacco ^TM .

Week 9: @ Steelers (L)

The Steelers are another one of those strange teams. They'll lose to teams that go 3-13 or 4-12, but undefeated against playoff teams. The thing that's got me leaning towards a loss is that Andrew Luck hasn't beaten the Steelers. The average Steelersmargin of victory is... Over 30 points... So until they can prove that they've broken that curse, this one is being written in as a loss.

Week 10: vs Dolphins (W)

The Dolphins are competing for the first overall pick this year. There may be the big play or two in this game, but I don't expect this to be terribly close.

Week 11: vs Jaguars (W)

Blake Bortles is no longer leading this team. Instead, it's Nick Foles! I know he's got a lot of defenders, but I don't really believe in Foles to lead a successful full campaign season. At the same time, Jacksonville always does well against the Colts. But with home field advantage, I'm going to give Indy the edge.

Week 12: @ Texans (L)

The Colts and Texans seem to always split the series. I'm fully expecting TY to go off in a huge way at NRG Stadium (aka TY Hilton Stadium), just like he always does. He's got a career average of over 100 yards in Houston. But another close game bounces the Texans' way this time.

Week 13: vs Titans (W)

Again, Andrew Luck hasn't lost to them. I expect another win, but I think this one will be much closer than the first one. With everyone back from suspensions, it'll come down to injury luck, which the Titans have never been good with. If Mariota goes down, it's Tannehill leading the charge, in what will certainly be his breakout season. Sorry, guys.

Week 14: @ Buccaneers (W)

Bruce Arians gets to face his former team at home in Tampa. But he's also in the process of retooling that roster. I think there may be a dangerous pass rush, but on the whole, I don't think this is going to be super close.

Week 15: @ Saints (L)

The Colts have a rough slate of road games this year. @Chargers, Chiefs, Steelers, and now Saints. The four best QBs on their schedule are all away games, and I think Brees will be able to carve up the Colts' secondary. But if he does fall off a cliff, like people are expecting him to do a la Peyton Manning in 2015, this could easily flip the other way.

Week 16: vs Panthers (L)

This is the closest home game I think the Colts will have this season, unless Newton falls off from that injury. While the Panthers don't have the best weapons on either side of the ball, Newton and CMC are both incredibly dangerous in their own right and I see them giving the Colts' defense a lot of trouble, while Kuechly shows Leonard what it means to be the best LB in the league. Also, odd-year Panthers. A big learning experience, but I think the Panthers take it.

Week 17: @ Jaguars (L)

Yikes. Ending the regular season on a three game skid doesn't bode well, but the Jgauars are always a tough team to play in Jacksonville. This game will certainly have playoff implications and may even decide the overall positioning of the AFCS. But unfortunately, I think Jacksonville is going to have the same effect it always does.

I realize this isn't the most optimistic take that any Colts' fan has. A lot of people are expecting a minimum of 10-6, probably a 12-4 season. There will be plenty of exciting games, and if the Colts get lucky in just the right games, I think it's also very possible for them to beat the Steelers, Panthers, and Texans in Houston to wind up 12-4. But that road schedule just seems a little bit too tough to get too optimistic. As far as postseason predictions go, if they manage to snag the wild card or even the division, I'd expect them to make it to the second round and lose to the team that got a bye again, although much closer.

Training Camp Battles:

According to Chris Ballard, if there aren't training camp battles for roster spots, you're building your team wrong. That's certainly true this year, and there's only one or two position groups that don't have strong battles for at least a spot on the team. Here are the highlights:

WR:

The Colts currently have 13 WRs on the roster. They'll probably carry only 5 or 6 in the regular season. That means between Daurice Fountain, Marcus Johnson, Steve Ishmael, Penny Hart, Chester Rogers, Deon Cain, and Zach Pascal, two of them will make the roster. The real battle is going to be between Cain, Pascal, Rogers, and Hart, but I wouldn't be shocked to see anyone in that group show up in camp.

CB:

The other huge position battle is at CB, like I mentioned earlier. Desir and Moore have locked up the top two spots, but Ya-Sin and wilson will be competing for coming on the field in nickel situations, while Hairston, Milton, Collins, and Tell will all be competing to not be the last guy bumped off the roster. Whoever doesn't make this team will probably get picked up as a waiver claim.

DL:

The only part of the DL that's set in stone is the starting 4. Everything else is up for grabs. Muhammad and Ward will be battling for a spot and the rookies will be trying to show that they deserve to make the team this year. Lots of depth, lots of potential, and some very good players are going to get cut.

Schemes:

Offense:

The point of the Colts' offense is that there isn't a specific scheme. If I had to classify it, I'd call it a West Coast offense. On days when they played teams with strong secondaries and safeties, they kept the passes short and quick, relying on dinking and dunking their way down the field. If there was a hole in the secondary, it would get exploited for deep plays. As soon as you've caught on to the quick tempo, a long developing deep play catches the defense on their heels. But, as soon as you've got that figured out, you wind up with Frank Reich and Nick Sirianni saying they want to have a top-5 rushing team this season, and they have the offensive line to turn it into a ground-and-pound team. We'll know what the offensive scheme will look like when we see it on the field.

The Colts are set up to play whatever personnel they think fits best against the defense. If they want to go 11, they've got 4 WRs fighting to get on the field, 4 RBs fighting to get on the field, and 3 TEs fighting to get on the field. If they want to go jumbo, they've got a 6th OL that could start on a handful of other rosters (Haeg) and 2 TEs that excel at blocking (Doyle and Alie-Cox). If they want to play to speed, they use Hines, TY, and Campbell the most. If they want size, it's Ebron, Cain, and Mack. Campbell and Hines can both play in the slot or out of the backfield, and both will probably see a handful of jet sweeps through the season. This team has depth at every position, and the idea is that in order to adequately cover everyone, you'll need to have 13 people on the field. Because don't forget, Luck is still a threat running.

The Offensive Line is going back to the "golden age" of Indianapolis under Howard Mudd. While it seems pretty built for more of a power look, Mudd as a coach emphasizes technique before anything, something that, according to players, wasn't terribly important last year. Mudd tends to prefer a more aggressive blocking scheme, which leads me to think it'll be more of a man scheme than a zone scheme.

On the whole, this offense will probably be a pretty up-tempo West Coast-style offense, with a power running twist. But they've got the depth to do pretty much whatever they want.

Defense:

The defensive scheme last season was a zone-heavy Cover 2, in the style of a Tampa 2. This year, it's supposed to get more complex. The goal is to have the depth to have a constant rotation of 9 defensive linemen, allowing for a "hurricane" approach, similar to the Eagles in 2017. While Nickel packages have become the de-facto base defense across the league, the Colts "official" base is a 4-3 and in the switch to Nickel, they prefer a 4-2-5 rather than a 3-3-5, taking the SAM linebacker off the field instead of pulling off a DL. Part of this is because of the tendency to not blitz, though. Instead, they relied almost entirely on their front 4 to generate pressure, with the occasional LB spy sneaking in for a sack.

The defensive front is designed as a 1-gap front 4, emphasizing pass rush more than anything. However, when it comes to the DEs, the strong side end is being asked to be a better run defender. With Sheard now injured, it remains to be seen who will step up there. Last season, there were also a lot of twists and stunts that were used to generate some pressure, and Margus Hunt in particular feasted those first few weeks. As the season went on and teams figured it out, they didn't work quite as well. But even with the front 4 struggling at times to generate pressure, the Colts refused to blitz. They finished the season in the bottom 5 of blitz rates. However, at the end of the season, they seemed more willing to accept help from blitzes. The team also really only has one "traditional" big-bodied DT in Grover Stewart. This is definitely a defensive line designed to rush the passer first, stop the run second.

The reason the DL can worry about the passer instead of the rush is the LB group. With a zone-heavy scheme in the secondary, the LBs frequently get tasked with covering the zones in the middle of the field. The Tampa 2 wrinkle is that the MLB actually drops back to turn a Cover 2 into a Cover 3, which requires some insane athleticism. The SAM is also the first one off the field when extra DBs are called for in this defense, which means that the other two LBs need to be athletic enough to cover TEs, RBs, and the occasional slot receiver. In addition, they get tasked with a spy role sometimes (and that's exactly how Leonard got his first NFL sack). With all these roles, the LBs need to not only be incredibly athletic, they also need to be intelligent and be able to diagnose an offensive look and a play direction pretty much at the snap. The DL has a pretty simple role, but a lot is being asked of the LBs that are on the field.

The secondary is so zone-heavy that they played zone on over 80% of snaps, far and away the most in the NFL last season. The point of a Cover-2 is that you've got the two safeties covering the deep zones over the top, allowing the CBs to cover the boundaries while the LBs cover the middle. Interestingly, though, the Colts have built their CB corps to... play man. Desir, Wilson, and Ya-Sin all excel at playing man coverage, as opposed to zone. With Eberflus's promise that the defense will be more complex this year, we're all expecting it to include many, many more man looks. The safeties and the LBs are the secret sauce in this defense, though. Everyone has heard about Darius Leonard's crazy good season. But Malik Hooker as the Free Safety is the glue that holds the secondary together. He's intimidating enough to shut down his half of the field entirely and has had more interceptions than TDs allowed so far in his career.

Based on what we saw last year, the base defense will be a 4-3 Tampa 2 style defense, though we’ll see primarily nickel and dime packages. Heavy emphasis on speed, tackling ability, and turnovers.

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Submitted August 01, 2019 at 03:05PM by Ozzurip https://ift.tt/2YA5LXq