When a team is projected to win 35 games, they're most likely to go fall somewhere in between that 30 to 40 range. And that variance depends on a variety of factors: injuries, the streakiness of 3-point shooting, etc.
However, each team also has some high variance players that will influence their upside and downside more than others. We're calling this a "hinge" player. It's not necessarily the "X-factor," because that hinge player may be the star of the team. He may be a rookie. He may be a 7th man. But whoever he is, the team's success hinges on his success.
So without further ado, let's identity some hinge players for each team. We're breaking it down into divisions for the interest of length, starting with the ATLANTIC DIVISION.
BOSTON CELTICS
Even after the defections of stars Kyrie Irving and Al Horford, the Boston Celtics have strong depth on the roster. Those two aren't easy to replace, but they at least filled the minutes void in the lineup with Kemba Walker and Enes Kanter. More than that, they added an underrated rookie class that features three separate players (PF Grant Williams, SG Romeo Langford, and PG Carsen Edwards) who could be become genuine contributors for a playoff team in a few years time. All in all, you could argue that this team has 10+ players who should be in a rotation somewhere.
The trouble is...? That rotation isn't evenly distributed right now. The team is by far the strongest at the wing, highlighted by Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, and a healthier Gordon Hayward. Conversely, the "center/big" spot looks to be quite thin. The Celtics will apparently rely on Enes Kanter to start, which is a dicey proposition. Kanter has his virtues (he has great hands and a soft touch around the basket), but to say he struggles defensively puts it mildly. ESPN RPM graded him as a -1.5 impact per 100 possessions, which ranked 69th among 70 qualifying centers. That's especially troubling because the man he's replacing (Horford) happens to be one of the better defenders at his position. Essentially, it's a double downgrade.
In most spots he's been, Kanter has been used as a "platoon" center. What that means is that he tends to alternate with a complementary big who specializes in defense. Here in Boston, that puts a lot of pressure on young C Robert Williams to step into that void. The "Time Lord" has a lot of physical talent and defensive potential, but still needs to prove he can put it all together. If he can't? This may be a troublesome spot. Backup Daniel Theis isn't any great shakes, and there's no PF who can capably slide over to a "stretch center" role unless the team wants to go VERY small. If Robert Williams can step up and be a poor man's Clint Capela, then this team has the potential to win a few rounds. If he flops, then this is a mammoth hole that most likely would require a trade or buy-out to fill.
BROOKLYN NETS
A few seasons ago, SG Caris LeVert felt like the most important player on the young Nets roster. And certainly, he has his virtues. He's a solid all-around wing, with the ability to score and create for others. Over the last two seasons, he's averaged over 5 assists per 36 minutes.
That said, he comes with his own limitations and questions marks. He hasn't proven to be durable, and he hasn't proven to be a reliable deep shooter yet. Last season, he shot 31.2% from three, not far removed from his 32.9% career average. LeVert's health is beyond the Nets' control in a way, but the shooting may become a crucial issue regarding "fit." Given his skill set, LeVert works best with the ball in his hands. When he's relegated to a secondary role (as a 3+D spacer) he has less to do offensively, and his shooting limitations become more pronounced.
Last season, we saw a little glimpse of this inevitable transition as LeVert's injury allowed D'Angelo Russell to take more responsibilities. Now, Kyrie Irving will be playing lead, and Kevin Durant will be joining him soon enough. So given that, what becomes of LeVert? Can he shine as an all-around "glue guy" 5th starter? Or would he be best served as a lead playmaker off the bench? You don't necessarily need a lights-out shooter in a lineup with Irving and Durant, but it wouldn't hurt. The more shooting = the better, especially when you're getting demoted to secondary player status.
The Nets didn't seem too concerned about the "fit" issues, because they gave LeVert a healthy contract extension this summer ($16M + $17.5M + $19M). But of course, that doesn't mean he'll necessarily be there for the duration of that deal. If Kenny Atkinson can work LeVert into a productive role with this club, they have legitimate title upside (when KD comes back.) If not, there's a real chance that he may be on the trade market as the Nets look for someone who can slide into that role more naturally.
NEW YORK KNICKS
A lot has been made of the Knicks' summer, and a lot of punchlines have been made at their expense. As the joke goes, they're planning to build the all-"power forward" team with new additions like Julius Randle, Bobby Portis, Taj Gibson, and Marcus Morris. That narrative may be a little overblown (most of them can play a few different positions), but still suggests a confusing plan in New York. Are they actually convinced that they can make the playoffs this year? Or are they merely finding veteran mentors to supplement the rebuild? There's a mixed message here that may suggest some behind-the-scenes concerns about the job security of David Fizdale and the front office.
At the end of the day, the Knicks' future won't be determined whether they win 30 games or 40 games this year. More important is the development and debut of # 3 pick, SG R.J. Barrett. And honestly, that could be more of a boom/bust selection than the bluechip pedigree suggests.
What's the "boom" here? Massive upside. Remember, it was R.J. Barrett (not teammate Zion Williamson) who had been considered the likely # 1 pick coming into last season. And it was R.J. Barrett (not teammate Zion Williamson) who led the Blue Devils in scoring with 22.63 per game. Barrett may not be Zion as an athlete, but he's got good size and strength for the wing position, which allows him to finish well inside and rebound to boot (7.6 per game at Duke.) In the NBA, he'll have even more space to attack inside, especially if the Knicks surround him with the shooters he didn't have at Duke. It's not outrageous to think he may be able to average 26-6-6 one day.
Unfortunately, the "bust" potential is there as well. Barrett's shot looked flat in college (45.4% from the field, 30.8% from three, 66.5% from the line.) If he's given too much of a greenlight, he could develop some bad habits and develop into an empty calorie scorer in a way that may remind you of Canadian-hype job Andrew Wiggins, and unfortunately may describe his new teammates Dennis Smith Jr. and Kevin Knox to some degree as well. I'm more of a Barrett optimist than most (he's more assertive than Wiggins), but we can't deny his flop potential either.
Barrett's variance will define the Knicks' season and the rosiness of their future. No, a superstar like Giannis is not coming to New York to play with Bobby Portis and Elfrid Payton. But if R.J. Barrett looks like a future star? Then suddenly, that rising tide may raise all ships.
PHILADELPHIA 76ers
Regardless of whether it's the "starting" lineup or the "closing" lineup or one and the same, the Philadelphia 76ers have arguably the best roster 1-5 in the NBA. Ben Simmons, Josh Richardson, Tobias Harris, Al Horford, and Joel Embiid are all on some spectrum between "good" and "great."
After that...? The Sixers have more question marks than Edward Nygma's closet. There's some depth, but not necessarily firepower. Veterans like Raul Neto, James Ennis, Mike Scott, and Kyle O'Quinn are all solid role players, but they're not going to be running an offense and making plays on their own accord. As a result, the Sixers may need to stagger that 5-man lineup to some degree to make sure that they have scorers on the court at all times. Losing Jimmy Butler (who can run an offense) and J.J. Redick (who can be the focal point in an offense) will be harmful to that end.
The concern about depth is what makes second-year SG Zhaire Smith so critical to the team's success this season and into the future. A lottery pick last year, Smith is an uber-athletic and long-armed guard from Texas Tech; to me, he's not a materially different level of prospect than teammate Jarrett Culver, who went in the top 10 this season. But that said, he's no sure thing. He was drafted more as an upside project than anything else, and he missed most of his rookie season with injury. He may be a stud by now; he may be unplayable. It's hard to know. But that uncertainty represents a big variance for this Sixers team. If Smith (or Shake Milton) can flash and add an exciting 6th man for the team, then the title is not out of the question. But if they can't find some punch from their young'ins, then they may need to make some roster moves to reinforce this bench.
TORONTO RAPTORS
Despite losing a top 5 player in Kawhi Leonard, the Toronto Raptors aren't going quietly from the playoff picture. President Masai Uriji has mastered the art of team building, and has the balls to actually follow through on that vision. Coach Nick Nurse is also one of the best in the game, with an impressive resume that goes beyond his work with the club last year. In terms of the roster, they still have a tough-as-nails 1-2 punch at PG with Kyle Lowry and Fred VanVleet, and they still have a full cupboard of PF/Cs with Pascal Siakam, Marc Gasol, and Serge Ibaka.
Unfortunately, this isn't NBA Jam where you can play one guard and one big and call it a day. To fill out the rest of the starting lineup, the Raps are going to have to find some competent and reliable wings. Losing Kawhi Leonard is one thing, but it comes on the heels of losing DeMar DeRozan (for Leonard, of course) and Danny Green. Green may not have played his best basketball in the playoffs, but he was red-hot this regular season, hitting 45% of his three on 5.4 attempts per game.
Most teams couldn't afford to lose two good wings, and Toronto is no exception. In their place, they'll likely start Norman Powell (a solid player, but perhaps best suited as a 7th man) and SF O.G. Anunoby. Of the two, Anunoby appears to be the most hit or miss, as the bold font may imply. Physically, Anunoby has the tools to be a stand-out, but he hasn't proven that at the NBA level for any consistent amount of time. He's gotten a decent amount of playing time with 20.1 minutes per game, but has only averaged a modest 6.4 points, 2.7 rebounds, and 0.7 assists. Defensively, he should be exceptional, but that hasn't exactly translated like babelfish so far. His raw numbers aren't staggering (0.7 steals and 0.3 blocks), and the advanced stats don't say much different, grading him as an -1.1 impact defensively last year.
If you're a Raptors' optimist, you'd have reasons to be encouraged. After all, this organization happens to be one of the best in the NBA in player development. With some more seasoning and some better health, Anunoby may indeed be their next breakout star, a la Pascal Siakam. Still, that's a hope, not a guarantee. And given the state of the rest of the roster, they're more reliant on that wild card than they may like to admit.
Submitted September 27, 2019 at 04:21PM by ZandrickEllison https://ift.tt/2nPAao6
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