The Super Rich of Silicon Valley Have a Doomsday Escape Plan by izumi3682 in r/Futurology
[–]izumi3682[S] 0 points 26 days ago
This sort of thing just confirmation biases my belief that an economic great filter is about ten years out now. Trillion dollar companies are another canary pitching over in that coal mine. But anyway, we either get "post-scarcity" or we get societal upheaval. Did you forget about the employment taking ARA?
I talked about this a while back and what brought it about and what is likely to happen time going forward. There is history, but history is good for you.
https://www.reddit.com/r/Futurology/comments/8sa5cy/my_commentary_about_this_article_serving_the_2/
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Fast unthawing using lasers and gold nanopoarticles by [deleted] in r/Futurology
[–]izumi3682 1 point 26 days ago
I been here many years. And many years back I read of a new form of cryopreservation and wrote a big long essay about it. Unfortunately I learned the hard way that any type of post or comment that exceeds 1000 falls into an event horizon and you can never recover it again. However if you are directly linked to it, you can access it. So it is not actually deleted, just basically inaccessible. Which is why I've taken to collating everything I've thought were quality comments into giant linkbergs. Everything else was simply lost. And it was a lot. A good three years worth. Damn.
Anyway, the article from several years back was about a new method of cryopreservation called 'vitrification'. There is a lot of biology behind the technique, but it boils down to the reason a frog can freeze absolutely solid in the winter and then thaw out and be no worse for the wear is that they have a sort of built-in "antifreeze" substance in their cellular structure that inhibits disruptive ice crystal formation. The frog becomes more like glass than ice. I don't have a clue how a hibernating squirrel doesn't freeze solid. Mammals don't have that anti-freeze stuff.
I speculated that this would be a terrific way to preserve a body of someone declared clinically dead for future technology revival. There is two bad times for freezing the dead with our current technologies. The first time is when we freeze them in the first place with liquid nitrogen. Ice crystals form in all the cells and really by our current technology that is pretty much it. But the other time is uneven thawing when more ice crystals form and everything turns to basically unviable organic mush.
This is why we don't thaw cryopreserved bodies on purpose. I have read some horror stories about power failures that are well, ick. The ice crystal cell disruption is bad enough. The idea is that in the future we can come up with some kind of unfathomable technology to fix not only the problem that killed the individual, to include Ted William's style old age. Also to re-attach his head or brain to some kind of "thing". But first how on Earth do we fix the cellular damage?
Vitrification was imagined to be a way to preserve the cellular integrity. I don't know if we have the technology to vitrify someone yet. But that was the speculation.
So now I see this new technology article about a way to rapidly thaw them cells out that are apparently vitrified like zebra fish (and frogs) can do. You have to "prep" em with an infusion of some nano gold stuff. I mean before you freeze them. It must get into pretty much every single cell. And I don't know if it can get into certain things like deeper bone or cartilage like matrices. That might take some additional technology to work for humans. And is such a thing toxic for humans? Well, I'd guess you'd do it just before they died anyways, because I'm not sure how long something like that could continue to keep. Or maybe it might work like embalming fluid, but I think you need to be alive to get that stuff actually into cells.
So I figured if we can figure out a way to vitrify the clinically dead person and then use this new business to unthaw them, that that using both methods to ensure critical cell integrity, would be quite the breakthrough for cryopreservation of deceased humans.
Then all you have to do is fix what killed them and/or re-attach their head, um and somehow restore life. Well at least you don't have to worry about the freeze/thaw part anymore.
So it looks like we are starting to make some of these "future technology breakthroughs' that people from the 1970s envisioned. But for everybody that's froze now, I'm not so sure. But then again there is still tons and tons of future ahead of us, so never say never!
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Terrorist wannabes plotted self-driving car bomb attack: authorities by izumi3682 in r/Futurology
[–]izumi3682[S] 2 points 26 days ago
Unfortunately, like fire, our computing and AI technology can be a double edged sword. Big things like government owned autonomous "killer" robotics, but also small time clever, but hateful humans, using the same technologies that are readily available, to carry out small time atrocities and crimes as well.
I would hope that our technology will evolve to a point where humans can no longer overcome or outsmart the technology or can at least be easily detected if they are attempting such.
But for the time being anyway the narrow AI is competing against the human mind and the human mind is for now, the far more clever and intelligent.
There will be bombings with this technology. There will be killings with this technology. There will be small time crime. The drone assassination attempt on Venezuela's Maduro is but a foretaste.
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Self-Driving Cars Will Keep Getting Better Forever by izumi3682 in r/Futurology
[–]izumi3682[S] 2 points 26 days ago
If you think E-SDVs are something today. Just wait 'til about ten or twenty years from today. Engineers envision E-SDVs controlled by super AI mapping, tracking and intervehicle communication moving at well over 200 mph on thoroughfares. You do not want to watch the action outside of your window. The technology is, well lets just say "disturbing" for humans to see. Play your games, watch a movie or sleep. Probably better if there is no windows on locally driven E-SDVs.
But of course I have totally neglected to mention what the future of SFVs is. In a word, it's "bright".
In ten years time you will see widespread deployment of consumer use SFVs. These will also be controlled by super AI.
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Will A Robot Take My Manufacturing Job? Yes, No, And Maybe by izumi3682 in r/Futurology
[–]izumi3682[S] 1 point 26 days ago
Going back to the title question, though, there's another segment of manufacturing jobs for which the answer is "no" when it comes to human workers being replaced by robots. Complexity, volume, and margin all combine in different ways to rule out the use of robots in many applications. Yes, robots can do very complex tasks, but if the volume being produced or the money being made at those tasks doesn't support the tremendous cost of a robot, people will continue to do it. Popular media accounts show high tech and highly automated factories as a rule, but the reality on the ground is that huge swaths of industry remain decidedly low-tech and heavily manual.
This is wrong. ARA will ultimately (five years) prove cheaper and more effective. I have already seen the technology, even as primitive as it is today. Trillion dollar corporations will vote with their pocketbooks.
But in the same vein is the "maybe" factor. Robots of the kind in use now will get cheaper even as they get more adaptable. Artificial intelligence holds tremendous promise in what kind of applications robots will be able to do economically in the future; instead of having to program a machine to do each and every movement, as is the case for most industrial robots today, one day the robots may be able to "learn" the task through computerized observation or machine-to-machine instruction.
This is really going to come to a economic and societal head one way or another in about ten years. I hope for my sake the outcome is something along the lines of "post-scarcity".
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A.I. could spur global growth as much as the steam engine did, study shows by izumi3682 in r/Futurology
[–]izumi3682[S] 2 points 26 days ago
The promise of our computing/AI technology is almost beyond imagining. But humans are always going to be avaricious humans. Human nature is, so far, impossible to combat.
Gore Vidal summed it up in two pithy, but frighteningly insightful quips.
"It is not enough that I should succeed. Others should fail." (Possibly originated with Somerset Maugham)
and
"Whenever a friend succeeds, a little something in me dies.”
And everyone knows what ARA means for the future of employment for survival.
Don't get me wrong. As long as we can help everybody. As long as every single human on Earth can live in comfort and dignity. As long as every single human on Earth can achieve a life level of "self-actualization", then all is good. Consider how we in the 1950s lived lives that would make a medieval king think he was actually in Heaven. The ARA can make us in the future going forward like gods in that heaven. All of us.
Unfortunately, I don't think it is going to work out that way. I think what is going to happen instead may well be a "culling" of the human race, to make it more "fit" to exist in the new ecological niche we are busily constructing.
I imagine it will begin by a simple reduction in human births. But if we can't achieve post-scarcity for all humankind, there will likely be violent social upheaval as the 99% scuffle over what bone they can get.
Think of these emerging trillion dollar companies as canaries in the coal mine. But perhaps, and I am probably just being naïve here, these emerging super monoliths will enable the good future we hope for.
(ARA is AI, robotics and automation)
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Amazon is the latest $1 trillion tech company - It's just weeks behind Apple. by izumi3682 in r/Futurology
[–]izumi3682[S] 1 point 26 days ago
Hmmph! Where's mah piece 'o th' pah?
Lorem ipsen dipsy doodle doo. Fa la la la la. ________________________________________________________________________________________-
You know what? I had to come back to this. Capitalism is out of control and the center cannot hold.
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IPUs? These New Chips Are Minted For Marketing (IPU means Intelligence processing unit) by izumi3682 in r/Futurology
[–]izumi3682[S] 2 points 26 days ago
Interesting takeaway.
Indeed, the semiconductor industry could soon resemble the cereal aisle of the supermarket. The explosion has already begun, with talk of DPUs (dataflow processing units), NPUs (neural processing units), EPUs (emotion processing units), and more. Computational muscle, fortified with the power of branding.
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How Artificial Intelligence Is Changing ERP by izumi3682 in r/Futurology
[–]izumi3682[S] 2 points 26 days ago
Important takeaway heralding coming hell on Earth.
1.Human Resources. Talent acquisition software can scan, read, and evaluate applicants and quickly eliminate 75% of them from the recruiting process. AI systems can successfully plan, organize, and coordinate training programs for all staff members. By determining individual affinities and revealing who should get a raise or who might be dissatisfied with the life-work balance, AI systems can be proactive and solve the problem of employee churn before it happens.
Their italics, not mine.
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Greater Life Expectancy Correlates with Greater Economic Productivity by izumi3682 in r/Futurology
[–]izumi3682[S] 1 point 27 days ago
The title of this article combined with what I suspect is coming in "ARA" makes me have cognitive dissonance.
Yes we are going to live much much longer.
No we are more than likely not going to be working for a living for very much longer.
Both of these developments will have noticeable societal impact in about 20 years, I'm pretty sure. Really the ARA will have significant impact in about 10 years.
("ARA" is AI, robotics and automation)
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Kids turn to screens to cope with a chaotic world by izumi3682 in r/Futurology
[–]izumi3682[S] 3 points 27 days ago
This is probably what is coming.
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UK firm testing fusion thrusters for spacecraft | Aerospace Testing International by izumi3682 in r/Futurology
[–]izumi3682[S] 1 point 27 days ago
Well these guys certainly sound very confident that we shall develop practical fusion in just 20 years now. Actually I think the latest predictions say more like 10 years.
They are also correct about how long things take to get somewhere. I thought it was six months to Mars. They said nine months.
We are not going anywhere until we develop this technology. Proxima Centauri is 75,000 years away from us at our current travel speed. Just imagine what kind of technologies we will come up with in the next 75,000 years. Personally I think it's going to get pretty crazy in the next three hundred years.
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Home robots at IFA 2018 prove our ‘Jetsons' fantasies will have to wait by izumi3682 in r/Futurology
[–]izumi3682[S] 3 points 27 days ago
We'll see.
In the year 2015 "home robotics" was the "Roomba" and "Alexa". That is just 3 years ago.
Today Boston Dynamics is preparing the release of the consumer version of the "Mini-spot". There is a Cambrian explosion of new robotics and narrow AI and these advancements in technology will more than likely bring about some home robots in the next three years, that will be very impressive indeed.
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What Does Quantum Theory Actually Tell Us about Reality? by izumi3682 in r/Futurology
[–]izumi3682[S] 1 point 27 days ago
It's important that we nail down what exactly "reality" is within the next couple hundred years before we start getting ideas about becoming some kind of non-corporeal "energy" beings and tear-assing all over the quantum probability waveform or something.
But in the nearer term, of say the next 50 years, we are going to make some more astonishing and perhaps sobering discoveries about what the nature of nature really is. These discoveries among other things could dictate whether we can move our "minds" to some kind of inorganic substrate where we could continue to function just fine and still be able to have fun all the time too.
I'm being a little facetious here. I would predict that in 100 years, what we have understood as "humanity" will by then be creatures that are to us today, unimaginable and incomprehensible. And this makes perfect sense in the scheme of the development of human civilization
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UT lands coveted $60 million supercomputer Funded by the National Science Foundation, the new supercomputer will give researchers from around the country the ability to do cutting-edge work. by izumi3682 in r/Futurology
[–]izumi3682[S] 1 point 27 days ago
From:https://www.popsci.com/summit-supercomputer
Its processing ability is rated at 200 petaflops.
Perhaps we are still scaling up from 187 petaflops?
Oh I thought we was going to have an exa-scale supercomputer in two years or so. Isnt 1 exaflop equal to 1000 petaflops?
http://usa.chinadaily.com.cn/a/201808/06/WS5b67a259a3100d951b8c8bf6.html
Yes the article is from China (PRC). But the time has come to start taking China (PRC) seriously as potentially hostile technological competition that could well supersede the USA.
The forecast seems to be late 2020 or early 2021.
Based on the content of this article and the ambient ever improving computer processing capabilities and new technologies, that by the year 2021 I am confident both the USA and China (PRC) will have fully functional exascale classical supercomputers. I note with interest that even as early as today, the USA Summit for example is replete with (narrow) AI enhancing architecture. That could be a bit of a wildcard.
I can't really comment on what exactly our quantum computer progress will be in the year 2021. But I see we are working on it at the government level of financing now. Our competitor is China (PRC). So it appears to be a technological race with very high stakes.
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8K TVs are coming, but ignore the hype by izumi3682 in r/Futurology
[–]izumi3682[S] 1 point 27 days ago
Wow just imagine the world that we have when 8K VR is possible. Or do you think other technologies may simply transcend the idea of resolution? But I think that in about 5 years we will see something like that.
I mark the year 2015 that something fundamental changed in our technologies, because we reached a critical threshold of computer processing. The gains in AI are simply a part of that too, because I am very interested in what the AI research is going to yield.
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8K TVs are coming, but ignore the hype by izumi3682 in r/Futurology
[–]izumi3682[S] 1 point 27 days ago
Gaming?
No, VR is just what it says, virtual reality.
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Robots can peer pressure kids, but don’t think for a second that we’re immune by izumi3682 in r/Futurology
[–]izumi3682[S] 0 points 27 days ago
Well we shall just let the years go by. I'm not going anywhere--Lord willin' and the creek don't rise, and we'll see who was closer in prognostication accuracy. If in two or three years I review what I predicted and see I was wrong, I'll cross that bridge when I come to it.
But I think there is a reason why futurology is so big in society now. Why futurology exists at all. And that is because changes that used to take ten or even twenty years are happening in 2 or 3 years now. And everybody notices that.
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8K TVs are coming, but ignore the hype by izumi3682 in r/Futurology
[–]izumi3682[S] 8 points 27 days ago
While I am all excited about awesome new technology coming along so fast for flat screen monitors, what I am really looking forward to is true 8K and anything beyond for use in virtual reality. I have read of things like 16K and other transcending technologies like the "metalens" and light field technology.
These kind of resolutions, in concert with untethered and far lighter hmds, will bring us the never want to leave the house VR we have been pining for since we developed the idea of making up things about 30,000 years ago.
And my long prophesied noticeable societal addiction too.
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Robots can peer pressure kids, but don’t think for a second that we’re immune by izumi3682 in r/Futurology
[–]izumi3682[S] -1 points 28 days ago
Interesting coincidence. I wrote this comment the other day.
Some people are accusing me of a "strange obsession" with linking things I wrote earlier in my comments. The implications is that all my thinking is tautological. The only reason I link my earlier comment is that I write a lot of stuff about pretty much everything futurology and I don't want to have to write out all over again something I already have a completed comment about.
Anyway here is the earlier comment, that is entirely my own unvetted opinion, if you are interested. Actually most of it is fact. Mostly it is a distillation of what I have already read or observed. I try not to make stuff up if I can help it. I just don't feel like adding footnotes to everything. Think of it as wild speculation, if you want to, that is acceptable within the framework of futurology's guesses about what the future is actually going to be.
I bet I'm proven mostly right about a lot of it.
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[The Verge] How AI-generated music is changing the way hits are made | "If AI is currently good enough to make jingly elevator music, how long until it can create a number one hit? And if it gets to that point, what does it mean for human musicians?" by letourpowerscombine in r/Futurology
[–]izumi3682 2 points 1 month ago
"Humans need not apply."
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[The Verge] How AI-generated music is changing the way hits are made | "If AI is currently good enough to make jingly elevator music, how long until it can create a number one hit? And if it gets to that point, what does it mean for human musicians?" by letourpowerscombine in r/Futurology
[–]izumi3682 1 point 1 month ago
Not necessarily...
First a bit of background. The computers this year, 2018, process at incredibly fast speeds, they have access to incredibly massive amounts of "big data". These two technological advancements alone were insufficient to these kinds of tasks as few as 3 years ago. That's how fast things are progressing now.
Then there's the CPU/GPU-CNN/GAN. That's the real secret sauce in all of this. The combination of those two types of processors, plus stuff that causes the illusion to people that thinking is going on--The convolutional neural network and the generative adversarial network.
What is really going on is analysis of tonal qualities and patterns that humans can't discern. The narrow AI cannot make a song. But what it can do is use it's predictive analysis, based on that big data it has, to produce models of varying levels of confidence. Then it compares those models to it's built-in "critic", the GAN, to see if it actually matches the big data in tonal qualities and patterns.
Then it spits out the final model.
Humans experience or view or listen to that model and provide feedback that is added to the big data. The narrow AI then tweaks the art, or music or writing to gain statistically improved numbers on it's feedback. based on a million, drillion metrics.
Now today that is still pretty primitive, but I see definite examples at least in writing and visual art like paintings that the AI is getting better at "understanding", as demonstrated by mimicking through synthetization, what it is that humans like. For example for the first time in human history a painting done by a narrow AI alone is considered "worthy" of being auctioned at "Christies". That is a landmark, or a benchmark metric if you will.
But in about ten years time I am confident that the advancements in narrow AI, the advancements in artificial human voice generation, to include singing voice, and just computer processing and capacity in general will conspire to make a "work" that precisely pushes your emotional buttons. To make a song "haunting" or a painting "resonate" or a writing "compelling.
This is just narrow AI. God help us if we ever do manage to make AGI.
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Self Driving Cars… No! Just No (a VERY understandably human, opposing view) by izumi3682 in r/Futurology
[–]izumi3682[S] 1 point 1 month ago
Not yet. But human nature is pretty easy to predict. I said this the other day. I place this link so I don't have to write out all over again what I already wrote once.
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UT lands coveted $60 million supercomputer Funded by the National Science Foundation, the new supercomputer will give researchers from around the country the ability to do cutting-edge work. by izumi3682 in r/Futurology
[–]izumi3682[S] 1 point 1 month ago
Well let's see, the fastest supercomputer today runs at 200 petaflops and in about 2 years or so we will have a 1000 petaflop supercomputer, barring any further breakthroughs in classical computing.
That is like almost more than 2 doublings in less than 4 years, if that. So already that trend is ahead of whatever we think of as Moore's Law. Perhaps we need to establish a new law. One that takes the impact of AI into consideration on our computers like this article states.
https://blog.openai.com/ai-and-compute/
I guess I don't care as much about the cost as the just utterly incredible capability. You can already see it starting. Mobiles like the Apple Iphone X and the 11 are getting right expensive!
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Self Driving Cars… No! Just No (a VERY understandably human, opposing view) by izumi3682 in r/Futurology
[–]izumi3682[S] 1 point 1 month ago
We are changing in fundamental ways that humanity has never experienced before. And these changes are not slow going. They are lightning fast. Think about the world only three years ago.
It is very humanly understandable to balk against these kind of changes. Alas it is also futile. But I wanted people to understand what we are moving to and I thought that video was very well presented.
Submitted October 01, 2018 at 10:41PM by izumi3682 https://ift.tt/2NTxzFG
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