Welcome to my omnibus compendium of Arizona’s upcoming primary races in the style of /u/hammer101peeps's Illinois article from back in March. The primary is set to take place August 28th – early voting ballots should have been mailed out on August 1st.
Arizona’s a really interesting state (I may be a hair biased), since it not only is home to two to four swing House seats and a high-profile Senate race, but also a vulnerable governor (thanks to the teacher walkout earlier this year) and tenuous majorities in both state houses that could – theoretically – deliver a Dem trifecta this fall. Other statewide candidates have also been on the attack, and few Republicans are safe in this climate. If Dr. Tipirneni’s massive swing in April can be replicated across the state, the Dems will pull off a coup of stupidly high proportions.
If you’re interested about which district you live in, check https://azredistricting.org/districtlocator/. If you want to get involved with your local Democratic party, find your legislative district on the previous link (NOT CD), and then search for your LD’s name at this link. Feel free to attend meetings, they’re a great way to get involved with candidates and like-minded individuals. If you wish to donate to a “clean elections” candidate (mentioned in the post as “running clean”), you will have to live in that candidate’s legislative district to do so. Statewide “clean” candidates can accept from anyone, although al such candidates probably have hit their goals for the cycle.
If you are a registered Independent and do not want to vote at the polls, you will need to request and early ballot using the website of your county’s recorder. Example links for Maricopa, Pima, and Pinal. Others available if needed.
Race ratings for listed primaries will be listed as Solid/Likely/Leans/Tossup and are not indicative of my own preference for that seat. I’ll denote my personal primary preferences at the end of this series, as well as the best Republican ticket for the Dems if someone here really really wants to pull a GOP ballot in the primary. I don not advise it, but since I can't stop ya, you'll get my best suggestions.
Some candidates have filed as write-in candidates for their primary. I’m unsure about the rules behind this, and if a win means they automatically appear on the ballot in November – currently in process of verifying. For example, in 2016 Gary Swing and Merissa Hamilton both won their respective Senate primaries (Green/Libertarian) as write-ins, but only Swing was on the ballot in the fall.
If you have any questions about voting in the primary, which races are the most contested, and how to get involved with other Democrats in Arizona, feel free to PM me.
ALL OPINIONS ARE MY OWN IN MY CAPACITY AS A VOTER IN ARIZONA, AND NOT REPRESENTATIVE OF ANY ORGANIZATIONS I WORK/ED FOR OR AM/WAS A MEMBER OF. THIS POST IS IN NO WAY ENDORSED BY THE ARIZONA DEMOCRATIC PARTY OR ANY SUB-ORGANIZATION THEREOF.
State Legislative Races
So as mentioned in the intro post, this’ll cover not only the federal and statewide candidates but also the state legislative races. Arizona has 30 districts, each with 1 Senator and 2 Representatives. Republicans hold meh majorities in both chambers (17-13 in the Senate, and 35-25 in the House), but Dems think this is the year for a potential flip of chambers. Due to time constraints I’ll try to focus on races with primaries, and write a primer about important general election races later – but hopefully I can get all of them done. Our party went balls to the wall and recruited 114 Democratic candidates to run this cycle, meaning that there’s a candidate running in every race across Arizona, in even the reddest of red districts. It also means there’s a lot of blurbs to write.
One additional point to make – the vast majority of people using the Arizona Clean Elections funding source are running for the state legislature. Their COH statistics will be denoted as ($XXX COH, Clean). This - for the most part – means that the only additional money they can expect in the race will come after/if they win their respective primaries, roughly to the tune of $20K-$25K or so.
So without further ado, the districts!
District 1
We start off with LD1 – a nominally Safe Republican district won in 2016 by a functionally 36 point margin in the House (given that Arizona has two House seats in districts identical to the Senate seats, sometimes it makes sense to only run one House candidate (“single shot”), which makes it weird to compare margins between House and Senate races). The Senate race was uncontested, Karen Fann easily won re-election. Noel Campbell and David Stringer are the incumbent Representatives. While Fann has skated through the past few years without too many scandals (although she’s stockpiling a sizable warchest for potential for higher office - $123K COH), Campbell and Stringer have been in their own fair share of hot water. Both were the only people to vote no on the expulsion of Don Shooter form the State House on sexual assault charges (outside of Shooter himself), and Stringer is on record saying immigration is an existential threat to the nation. He later attempted to walk this back at a LoLos Chicken and Waffles, with noted con artist masquerading as a civil rights activist Jarrett Maupin at his side. He has declined calls to resign. Stringer has $78.2K COH, Campbell oddly only $17.8K.
Before I get to the Dems – who are relatively cannon fodder in the second reddest district in the state – I’ll talk a bit about GOP challenger Jodi Rooney. Rooney – a councilwoman from Prescott Valley – has seized upon Stringer being a racist piece of trash to try and create separation as the “sane GOP” candidate. She “leans away” from school voucher programs (a rare position for GOP politicians in the state), touts her tuition assistance program for working single moms set up in Prescott Valley, and is also hammering Stringer on his “complicit behavior” in regards to voting No on the Shooter expulsion vote – Rooney mentions a strong support for the #MeToo movement and strengthening of harassment protocol at the legislature. While she’s obviously not a Dem., she’s a step up from the current crop and would put stumbling blocks in place for Ducey if he wins a second term. She has only $6.6K COH.
The Dems running in the district, to their credit, are still trying. They recently had a local field office opened up by the Maricopa County Party (although this – as mentioned earlier – was more an investment in CD6) – and are actively campaigning in their district. Retired FBI agent Jo Craycraft is running for Senate ($14.5 K COH, Clean), and Democratic activist Jan Manolis ($19K COH, Clean) and 2012 State Rep. candidate/anti-marijuana (you read that right) activist ***Ed Gogek ($19K COH, Clean) are running for House.
The real race here is going to be the primary – if enough Rooney single-shot voters (i.e. only vote for Rooney instead of Rooney and Campbell or Rooney and Stringer) turnout, the GOP could be stuck with a relatively moderate Republican in a district that could support someone far worse. The Dem. slate doesn’t stand much of a chance in the general (generic Dems in the district get around 30%), but maybe Gogek can use his opposition to marijuana legalization to create some separation. Still, I don’t really count on it. Rooney also faces an uphill battle in funds.
hunter15991 Rating: Fann Unopposed, Likely Campbell, Leans Stringer. Dem primary unopposed. Solid GOP Sen, Solid GOP House.
District 2
If LD1 is very red, LD2 is really blue. Not too blue though – in 2016 the RSLC (GOP alternative to the DLCC) actually targeted the district to flip on the Senate side, and there was a Republican representative as recently as 2016. Current incumbents are all Democrats: Senator Andrea Dalessandro ($14K, Public), and Representatives Daniel Hernandez ($15K COH) and Rosanna Gabaldon ($14K COH), all running uncontested on the Democratic side. Republican House candidates are former legislator Chris Ackerly ($8K COH), in the hunt for his old seat (Hernandez won it in 2016), and electrical engineer Anthony Sizer ($18K COH, Clean). Hernandez and Gabaldon have a strong base of support in the district and should cruise to re-election, especially this year. The only reason Ackerly held a seat here is because he ran single-shot, and Sizer’s run is probably the nail in the coffin for him.
Dalessandro had an easy run at re-election in 2016 as well, even though Shelley Kais ($16K COH) obtained and endorsement from the RSLC. She is running again this year, being challenged by local wackadoodle Bobby Wilson ($3.8K COH, Clean), who openly talks about how he committed double homicide of his family members and arson to cover up the deed, in “self defense”. Kais seems set to win the primary on the back of the support she built from her run last cycle, but this is 2018 – anything could happen.
hunter15991 Rating: Likely Kais, GOP House unopposed. Dem primary unopposed. Solid Dem Sen, Solid Dem House.
District 3
LD3’s relatively boring given the Safe Dem status it holds (as blue as LD1 is red) – to the point that there are no declared Republicans running. However, the primary is heating up. On the Senate side, things are relatively tepid – incumbent Representative Sally Ann Gonzales ($26K COH, Clean) is facing off against Pima County Housing Program Manager Betty Villegas ($23K COH, Clean). Gonzales is expected to make the hop over to the House given her established cred in the area.
The House race is a bit more interesting. The general will consist of the two Democratic nominees and former Green Party candidate for Tucson City Council Beryl Baker (I doubt her views that society’s collapsing and that it’s too expensive to clean up Superfund sites will flip any voters), and the race to fill those two Dem spots is getting heated.
Incumbent State Senator (and former State Rep.) Olivia Cajero Bedford ($17K, Clean) is running for a House spot again, and has endorsed policy aide Andres Cano ($35K COH) as her runningmate. The third candidate in the district is Jewish-Latina activist and former College Democrats of Arizona chairwoman Alma Hernandez ($19K COH) . Bedford seems set to take one of the seats as a more-than-established name in the area, leaving the fight to Hernandez and Cano.
Hernandez quotes a long list of endorsements from big Dem. figures and organizations – but a substantial amount are from outside her district and county. Cano has a more local base of support, including the extremely important endorsement (for the area) of US Rep. Raul Grijalva. Hernandez also boasts two other endorsements that have been seized upon by Bedford and Cano – the Arizona Realtors’ Association, and the Greater Phoenix Chamber of commerce (none of District 3 is in the Greater Phoenix area). Both groups are running mailer ads for Hernandez (with one even implying Bedford had endorsed her) for her implicit support banning sales tax hikes on digital goods. Hernandez has refused to denounce the endorsements and the ads, and Cano has pressed the attack on her. IT remains to be seen who prevails in this fight – although the local twist to Cano’s endorsements gives him a slight edge in my mind.
hunter15991 Rating: Likely Gonzales, Likely Bedford, Leans Cano. Solid Dem Sen/House general.
District 4
Although nominally a lot redder than LD3 (an AZ handicapping service puts the political lean of the district at Leans Dem, and in 2014 the incumbent Dem. only got 53.8% of the vote), LD4 is the epitome of a snoozefest this cycle, since no Republicans are running, and Democratic primaries are uncontested. Incumbent State Senator Lisa Otondo ($16.5K COH) is running again, as are State Rep. Gerae Peten (yes, that’s her account, she’s a mega back-bencher with no website - $500 COH - clean) and House Minority Whip Charlene Fernandez/ ($58K COH). Peten’s a rather quiet legislator – appointed in 2017 to fill the spot opened by the resignation of Dem. Representative Jesus Rubalcava, I’m surprised she’s running for re-election. Fernandez, on the other hand, is a powerful voice at the leg. and is setting herself up for a run at CD3 once Grijalva retires.
Otondo is running uncontested in the general, Peten and Fernandez face Green Sara Mae Williams.
hunter15991 Rating: Dem. primary uncontested. Green uncontested. Dem Sen uncontested general, Solid Dem. House general.
District 5
LD5 is the reddest district in Arizona (generic Dems get about 27% of the vote here), the former district of Kelli Ward, and the LD for Kingman (the anti-mosque town featured in Who is America). Incumbent House members are Paul Mosley ($14K COH)- he of “legislative immunity lets me do 140 on the freeway” and “let’s end compulsory schooling” - and Dr. Regina Cobb ($50K COH), who to her credit hasn’t said the same stupid shit as Mosley but is more or less up his alley politically (hell, she actually also pleaded legislative immunity to get out of very stringent divorce settlement results. In the Senate, they’re represented by Sonny “I did not beat my wife” Borrelli ($23.5K COH).
Real upstanding citizens.
Anywho, the main focus, as in LD1, is on the GOP primary. While Army veteran J’aime Moragine ($1.5K COH, Clean) is running for Senate and retire businesswoman Mary McCord Robinson ($1.3K COH, Clean) are running on the Dem. side, they haven’t really distinguished themselves as candidates and’ll prove token opposition for the Borrellli and GOP House nominees.
But the GOP House race is actually quite juicy. Cobb has escaped without a lot of criticism, but Mosley’s most recent comment getting to speed because he’s a legislator has riled up a lot of Trumpists in the district about his behavior. The main Trumpist running is Jennifer Jones-Esposito (no reports filed), campaign chair for the Trump campaign in La Paz County in 2016 and main proponent for naming a stretch of road in Arizona after LaVoy Finicum, a militiaman shot dead during the Bundy standoff. Leo Biassuci ($4K COH), a former Green Party candidate for the district, has also made a 180 and is running in the Republican primary. Rounding out the clusterfuck are write-in candidates Patrick Finerd and Sam Harrison.
Mosley, sensing the heat is on him, has turned to publishing the arrest histories of his Republican opponents, including throwing Cobb under the bus (a nominal no-no, seatmates are supposed to be chill with each other). Peruse the link if you’re interested.
Dems stand no chance in the general, so it’ll be interesting to see how the primary plays out. Cobb and Mosley should coast to victory given their warchests, Biassuci’s past, and Esposito’s lack of campaigning – but in this wasteland anything could happen in the end.
hunter15991 Rating: Dem. primary uncontested. GOP Sen uncontested, Safe Cobb, Likely Mosley. All Safe GOP General.
District 6
LD6 is the first real swing district in Arizona – it went for Clinton by the narrowest of margins, but has Republicans in all three spots. Sylvia Allen ($27K COH), the woman behind a bill mandating church attendance for the general public. The current Representatives are Tea Partier Bob Thorpe ($21K COH) and Brenda Barton, who compared Obama to Hitler for cutting the military budget…no, I don’t understand the logic either
Again, just like LD5, great people.
Barton attempted to primary Allen this year, but was removed from the ballot following a lengthy court case. Running to fill her spot on the Republican side of things are Stuart McDaniel ($13K COH), a conservative activist that led the fight to repeal Flagstaff’s $15.50/hr minimum wage, and Walt Blackman ($1.5K COH), an Army vet (and…black man) running on his status as a veteran. McDaniel is on a ticket with Thorpe, while Blackman’s fighting solo.
On the Dem side, there are no primaries. Holbrook Vice Mayor Wade Carlisle ($22K COH) is running for the Senate, with AirForce vet Felecia French ($36K COH) and Holbrook Mayor (yes, odd twist) Bobby Tyler ($12K COH) running for House seats. Carlisle is endorsed by the DLCC and several nationwide legislative PACs, and French and Tyler have received collateral endorsements from most groups. While they’ve been able to more or less keep pace financially with their GOP counterparts, Carlisle suffered a big blow when Barton was removed from the primary ballot on the GOP side. And anecdotally – while there is volunteer enthusiasm for the Dems here, they’ve blown through most of their paid staff, who have left due to mismanagement and workplace difficulty complaints. State party has resorted to shipping people up from Phoenix to work on the campaign.
The Dems here started off on the wrong foot financially, but have been able to close the gap. It remains to be seen if they can pull off the win, but it’s definitely doable. The presence of Senate Libertarian Jeff Daniels may swing at least Allen’s eat solidly to the Dems.
hunter15991 Rating: Dem. primary uncontested. GOP Sen uncontested, Safe Thorpe, Likely Blackman. Senate Leans D general, Tossup House.
District 7
District 7 is a safe Dem. district – so safe, Dem candidates don’t even have websites up and running. Once the home of turncoat Carlyle Begay, the seat is now in true blue hands. Jamescita Peshlakai ($0.64 COH) is the incumbent Senator, running for re-election. Both Representatives unfortunately (they’re sweet people) did not run for re-election, leaving Navajo Department of Transportation boardmember Arlando Teller ($0 COH) and Chinle USD boardmember Myron Tsosie ($582 COH) as the default Dem. candidates.
Peshlakai faces token GOP opposition from former AmericansElect gubernatorial candidate John Lewis Mealer ($100 COH), and Apache County Board of Supervisors and illuminati conspiracy theorist Doyel Shamley (no finance reports filed). Shamley being an elected official may help him somewhat, but the GOP still has a big deficit to make up here before they can be competitive. Running two white candidates in a strict that’s 3 to 1 minority-majority axes whatever chance the GOP had of surprising the underfunded Dem. candidates.
hunter15991 Rating: Dem. primary uncontested. GOP primary uncontested. All Safe Dem. general.
District 8
We’re back to the fun stuff, baby.
LD8 is a predominantly rural district, but is slowly urbanizing due to the growing suburbs of Maricopa County leaking into Pinal. Although it leans red, it has held a Dem. State Senator for long stretches of time, even as late as 2016. Held together by a patchy coalition of rural Dems, local Native Americans, and small-town hippies, LD8 has been the equivalent of Montana’s US Senate seat for the Arizona Dem. Party. Unfortunately, former Sen. Barbara McGuire was swept out by now-incumbent Frank Pratt ($27.7K COH) due to a horribly-run campaign on her part in a year when Arizona in general shifted a few points towards the Dems, so now the district is back on the offensive target board.
McGuire is not running again this year, but there is a competitive primary on the Dem. side for Senate and House. Healthcare professional Sharon Girard ($4.5K COH, Clean) was the first to declare, although her candidacy got off to a rocky start, and stayed on it. She angered many high-tier donors by calling them for cash late at night, and was forced to run clean because she was subsequently blacklisted by most people who’d have given her money. A relatively poor public speaker who now had most of her funds sapped, Girard running uncontested made it seem like a repeat of McGuire was imminent.
Thankfully for everyone outside of Girard, teacher and local activist Natali Bock ($11K COH) threw her hat into the ring in the spring. A much better candidate in all regards (take a wild guess who my endorsement post will be about), Bock closed the finance gap with Girard and now has the majority of the support in-district. She seems set to win the primary on the 28th.
House-wise, the race is also interesting. 2016 nominee Carmen Casillias ($120 COH, Clean) is running again, joined by Marine vet Pablo Correa ($350 COH, Clean) and businesswoman and publisher Linda Gross ($10.3K COH, Clean). Gross is the only one of the three who has qualified for clean funding as of 6/30, so if you’re in LD8 consider donating to whichever of the other two pique your interest.
On the Republican side, Speaker Pro Tempore TJ Shope ($67K COH) and David Cook ($76K COH) are running unopposed in their primaries. They enter the general with a sizable name advantage over Dem. nominees, and Shope especially will be guarded by the GOP because he’s a possible recruit for CD1 given his rapid rise through the legislature at such a young age (32).
The general will be a tough slog again – but if Bock wins it will allow the party more flexibility to fundraise elsewhere, and she’ll be a lot stronger candidate than McGuire or Girard. The Senate is the real battle here, although if Bock and statewide perform well enough it may drag a House nominee over the line as well.
hunter15991 Rating: Likely Bock, Leans Gross/Casillas. GOP primary uncontested. Tossup Senate general, Leans GOP House general.
District 9
LD 9 takes us back south to Tucson, to a nominally LeansD district that the GOP have contested in better years, but just like LD4, have given up on this year. Incumbent Dem. Senator Steve Farley is leaving to lose his gubernatorial campaign (I’m sorry, I had to), and former State Rep. and CD2 candidate Victoria Steele ($13K COH, Clean) and Flowing Wells USD boardmember Jim Love ($13.5K COH, Clean). Steele commands most of the endorsements in the area and has strong name recognition from her tenure as State Rep. for the district, and seems set to claim the nomination for the district. On the GOP side, businessman Randy Fleenor is running as a write-in candidate. He has yet to file any finance reports, and it is yet to be seen how earnestly he takes this race (his press release announcing his run says that he chose not to run for State house because of the “Three GOP candidates in the running for House already” – albeit only one ever filed. We’ll get to her in a sec).
On the House side, incumbent Representatives Dr. Randall Friese ($22K COH – also the surgeon that saved Rep. Giffords’ life) and Pamela Powers Hannely ($15.5 K COH, Clean) are running for re-election, with businessman JP Martin ($16K COH) challenging them in the primary. Martin leans more to the center than Friese and Powers Hannely, and most likely will not make it past the primary in this district. In the general, Dems will face Pima County GOP Vice Chair Ana Henderson ($6K COH).
A LeansDem district, Henderson is trying to single-shot her way to a victory, but in my opinion does not have the moderate platform or the funds needed to pull that off, especially in a wave year like this one. The district should stay in blue hands.
hunter15991 Rating: Likely Steele, Likely Friese/PPH. GOP primary uncontested. Solid Dem. Senate, Likely Dem House.
District 10
Just across the border from LD9 is LD10. A tossup seat by nature, LD10 is at roughly a PVI of D+2. Unfortunately for its residents, while it h as an incumbent Dem. Senator, David Bradley ($12.7K COH) and a solid Dem. Representative in Kirsten Engel ($28.2K COH), the second Representative is racist loon Todd “The Confederate flag isn’t racist” Clodfelter ($25.8K COH). While Clodfelter is a racist shitstain in some regards, he’s also surprisingly moderate in terms of funding public education (He knows he needs to be given the breakdown of his district), and on some other pet issues.
The Dem. field to oust Clodfelter is vast. Alongside Rep. Engel, Air Force veteran Nikki Lee ($24.5K COH, Clean), Naval officer and professor Catherine Ripley ($4.2K COH), and juvenile trial attorney Domingo DeGrazia ($3.3K COH) are all running for House. The primary thankfully has not been divisive (candidates routinely canvass with one another), but it has been a tough financial drain on all candidates outside of the incumbent Engel. It remains to be seen who makes it out with the second slot as endorsements have been relatively evenly-spread – but Lee’s strategy of saving cash until the final push and her stronger associations with Engel may put her over the line.
In the general, Senator Bradley will go up against token GOP opposition in the form of defense contractor Marilyn Wiles. She has yet to file a finance report, and judging by how she failed to make any waves in the CD2 election (She was originally running against LMP for the Republican nom.) will most likely fail here as well. Clodfelter, however, is a much stronger candidate – and whoever wins the Dem spots will have to paint him as a bad rep. without explicitly attacking him on the education front, since he’s built up his bona-fides there.
This will be a tough race. The presence of a Green Party candidate, “radical middle progressive” Joshua Reilly (who originally tried to ratfuck the CD2) race, does not help at all.
hunter15991 Rating: Dem Senate uncontested. Likely Engel, Leans Lee. GOP primary uncontested. Likely Dem. Senate, Solid Dem House (1), Tossup Clodfeltler/non-Engel nominee.
Submitted August 04, 2018 at 08:04PM by hunter15991 https://ift.tt/2LUgTwX
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